In the Race’s Final Hours
As the countdown to the election approaches its climax, a recent poll has reminded the financial markets of the significant influence wielded by women voters. This shift in momentum is palpable, with investors on Monday beginning to unwind their positions in what has been dubbed the “Trump trade.” In a notable turnaround, bond prices have increased, while the dollar and cryptocurrencies have experienced a decline.
One of the key factors contributing to this change is a surprising new poll indicating that Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a slight lead in traditionally Republican-leaning Iowa. This development, largely fueled by support from women and older voters, has also resulted in a tightening of Donald Trump’s lead in political prediction markets.
Why the Change of Heart?
The respected Ann Selzer/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, released on Saturday, revealed that Harris holds a narrow three-point advantage over Trump in the Hawkeye State, which is known for its Republican stronghold status. Ann Selzer herself remarked, “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”
Some Urged Caution About the Poll
However, not everyone is convinced by the poll’s findings. The Economist raised concerns about the small sample size in Selzer’s poll, questioning its reliability as a predictor for outcomes in other states. Additionally, the Trump campaign highlighted another Iowa poll released the same weekend, which showed the former president leading Harris by a margin of ten points.
Insights from Political Experts
Despite the skepticism, Michael McDonald, a politics professor at the University of Florida who manages a vote-tracking site, pointed to similar trends emerging in a recent poll conducted in Kansas, suggesting that the dynamics might not be isolated to Iowa.
The Impact on Political Betting Markets
The Selzer poll has certainly stirred up the political betting markets. Following its release, Trump’s odds of winning decreased on platforms such as Polymarket, marking a shift from the previous weeks when his odds had been steadily climbing alongside the broader elements of the Trump trade.
