The Urgent Victory Plan for Ukraine
The kernel of the long-awaited “victory plan” for Ukraine, introduced by President Volodymyr Zelensky this fall, can be summarized as follows: If you provide me with what I have been persistently requesting — NATO membership and the ability to launch Western missiles deep into Russian territory — I could potentially bring an end to the war by next year.
While these demands are not entirely new, the urgency surrounding them is heightened by the impending American election. The actions that President Biden undertakes before he leaves office will significantly influence the future trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Actual NATO membership for Ukraine remains unattainable until the conflict is resolved. The Atlantic alliance has already affirmed that Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path toward membership; however, concrete steps in this direction are unlikely at this juncture. On the other hand, the prospect of Ukraine firing NATO missiles into Russian territory has gained traction among a growing number of alliance members.
Despite this, President Biden has yet to endorse such actions. He is apprehensive that allowing NATO weapons to strike inside Russia would escalate Western involvement in the war. Furthermore, it would breach a significant red line established by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has warned that long-range strikes against Russia would mean that NATO countries — including the United States and European nations — are essentially at war with Russia.
However, a rising chorus of NATO member states has begun to voice their dissent against this position, urging the United States to grant Ukraine the necessary authorization. They argue that Russia exhibits no hesitation in employing weapons supplied by countries such as China, North Korea, or Iran against Ukraine. As Poland’s foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, articulated in a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, “Are you telling me that Putin is not using — is not throwing — everything he has at Ukraine?”
Ultimately, whatever decision President Biden makes (or refrains from making) in the final weeks of his administration will lay a foundation that the next president will have to navigate.