Ukraine’s Nuclear Dilemma: Security, NATO, and the Budapest Memorandum

Ukraine’s Security Dilemma: A Nuclear Option?

Ukraine's Security Dilemma: A Nuclear Option?

In a recent discussion with the European Council, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a controversial statement suggesting that Ukraine’s only alternative to NATO membership might involve pursuing nuclear weapons. He remarked, “Who gave up nuclear weapons? All of them? … Ukraine. Who is fighting today? Ukraine.” This statement reverberated through diplomatic channels, sparking a significant reaction.

Later that same day, during a meeting with NATO’s top official, Mark Rutte, Zelenskyy felt compelled to clarify his position. He emphasized that Ukraine has never entertained the idea of developing nuclear weapons or constructing a nuclear bomb. “We are not building nuclear weapons. What I meant is that today there is no stronger security guarantee for us besides NATO membership,” he explained, attempting to mitigate the fallout from his earlier remarks.

In an effort to further clarify Ukraine’s stance, the foreign ministry issued a formal statement affirming Kyiv’s commitment to nuclear non-proliferation. “Ukraine is convinced that the NPT (the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons) remains the cornerstone of the global international security architecture,” the statement read. It continued to underline Ukraine’s adherence to the provisions of the NPT, expressing that despite the ongoing aggression from Russia, Ukraine remains a responsible participant in the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.

Zelenskyy elaborated on his earlier comments by referencing the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which entailed Ukraine relinquishing its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from key nuclear powers, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. Reflecting on this decision, he stated, “From today’s perspective, handing over the nukes was a mistake, and that’s all there is to it.” He pointed out, “Which of these major nuclear powers suffered? All of them? No. (Just) Ukraine,” underscoring his belief that the guarantees provided have proven inadequate.

The Budapest Memorandum: A Historical Overview

In December 1994, leaders from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia convened in Budapest to offer security assurances to Ukraine in connection with its commitment to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapons state. This agreement required Ukraine to disarm its nuclear arsenal — which was the third-largest in the world at the time — inherited from the Soviet Union. It also involved transferring approximately 1,900 nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantlement.

However, two decades later, in 2014, Russia violated this agreement by invading Ukraine, illegally annexing Crimea, and seizing substantial territories in eastern Ukraine. In stark contrast, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has actively modernized its own nuclear arsenal. Recently, Moscow attempted to test its latest intercontinental ballistic missile, the RS-28 Sarmat, also known as Satan II, which is touted by Russian authorities as the “world’s deadliest” nuclear weapon.

According to Matt Korda, an associate senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the RS-28 is designed to replace the older RS-20V Voevoda missile, a relic created over 30 years ago. Notably, many missiles in the Soviet intercontinental ballistic missile family, including the RS-28, were originally developed by Pivdenmash, a Ukrainian state-owned aerospace manufacturer located in Dnipro. Additionally, control systems for these missiles were designed by Khartron, a design engineering bureau in Kharkiv. Since the onset of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Russian forces have regularly targeted both Dnipro and Kharkiv with their missile strikes.

Related

  • Kremlin states changes to nuclear doctrine are a ‘warning’ to the West
  • What is Satan II, the ‘world’s deadliest’ nuclear weapon being tested in Russia?

In response to Zelenskyy’s statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Moscow would not allow Ukraine to acquire nuclear weapons. He asserted that any Ukrainian moves in this direction would be closely monitored and would provoke an appropriate response from Russia. “Russia will not allow this to happen, no matter what,” Putin stated emphatically.

Andrii Yermak, the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, commented on the situation, asserting that it was Ukraine’s own decision to dismantle its nuclear arsenal in 1994, and insisted that Zelenskyy’s comments had been misinterpreted. Yermak emphasized that Ukraine seeks security guarantees rather than a return to nuclear armament. “We want to receive what we have the rights to,” he said, referring to the promises outlined in the Budapest Memorandum.

He acknowledged the unfair outcome of the memorandum for Ukraine but maintained that Kyiv would not resort to similarly unjust actions. “All of us in Ukraine are living in this terrible war, many of us lost our relatives, our friends, but the difference is, we have not become animals. This is the difference between us and Russia,” he concluded, highlighting Ukraine’s commitment to moral integrity even amidst the ongoing conflict.

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