Trump’s Political Comeback: Implications for Europe
Donald Trump’s potential political resurgence in the United States has sparked a mixed reaction among European leaders and populist politicians. While a few supporters in Europe have expressed enthusiasm for his return, there are significant concerns regarding the implications his presidency could have on the continent’s security, defense, and economic interests.
Who Are Europe’s Winners Post-Election?
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was among the first European leaders to extend congratulations to Trump, celebrating the election as a “much-needed victory for the world.” He later remarked that this shift could herald a “change of minds and ideas.” According to Thierry Breton, a former European Commission official, Orbán is likely to become Trump’s primary contact in Europe.
Péter Krekó, a political analyst at the Political Capital Institute in Budapest, notes that while Orbán’s ties to Trump may enhance his diplomatic profile, the economic repercussions could be complex. Krekó stated, “Orbán is seen as an increasingly significant figure among US Republicans, which is beneficial for him. However, if Trump enacts higher tariffs on the German auto industry, this could adversely affect the Hungarian economy.” He elaborated that while Orbán may gain diplomatic stature, the tangible economic benefits for Hungary remain uncertain.
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Another European leader hailing Trump’s return is Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, who expressed that the new US president’s leadership “can only do good for Italy, Europe, and the entire world.” Hendrik Vos, a political science professor at Ghent University in Belgium, pointed out that those who stand to gain from a Trump administration often share similar views on migration and traditional values, and they adopt a combative style in politics. Vos remarked, “They are highly polarizing, fiercely attacking political opponents and complicating matters for the opposition. Orbán and Salvini have faced criticism in Europe for undermining democratic norms.” He added that Trump’s presidency would serve as validation for such political tactics.
Nonetheless, experts emphasize that Trump’s political agenda is centered on prioritizing American interests above all else. The Republican Party’s platform, imbued with Trump’s rhetoric, prominently features “America First,” condemning previous leaders for outsourcing jobs and embracing globalism. Vos cautioned, “If Trump must choose between American interests and those of Hungary or Italy, he will invariably prioritize the former,” suggesting that Orbán and Salvini should not expect preferential treatment.
Who Are Europe’s Political Losers?
There is a consensus that Trump’s election will have far-reaching effects across Europe, particularly in terms of business, defense, and security. Mai’a Cross, director of the Center for International Affairs and World Cultures at Northeastern University in the US, indicated that Trump’s presidency is likely to cause significant concern for key European powers like France and Germany, which play critical roles in European security and defense.
Cross noted that regardless of Trump’s policies, they are likely to pose challenges to Europe, from potential increases in tariffs on imports to adverse impacts on regional stability. She remarked, “While Trump’s victory might temporarily invigorate support for far-right, anti-immigrant groups in Europe, it will ultimately not aid them as voters will recognize the consequences of such policies.”
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At a recent European Political Community meeting in Budapest, French President Emmanuel Macron addressed the situation by stating that it is not his position to declare whether Trump would be beneficial or detrimental to Europe. “He was elected by the American people, and he will defend American interests. That is legitimate and positive,” Macron said. “The real question is whether we are prepared to defend European interests.”
Similar sentiments have been echoed by other European leaders. Polish President Donald Tusk warned prior to the elections that Europe’s future “depends first and foremost on us.” A particular concern among leaders is the future of US support for Ukraine and NATO, especially given Trump’s previous comments encouraging Russia to act against nations that do not meet defense spending commitments.
Ultimately, Vos cautioned that the ramifications of Trump’s presidency extend beyond mere support from certain leaders. “Some countries may feel inclined to purchase weapons from the United States or negotiate favorable bilateral agreements with the Trump administration,” he said. “Trump will likely attempt to leverage divisions within the EU member states against one another, making it imperative for the European Commission to counteract this strategy.” Krekó concluded that while Trump’s election might provide a short-term boost to the popularity of populist movements, the long-term relationship between his administration and Europe remains uncertain.
