Trump’s Election Victory Predictions: A Closer Look
This week, former President Donald J. Trump took to social media to share a vibrant graphic that suggested he was on the path to victory in the upcoming presidential election. The graphic indicated that Mr. Trump had a striking 64 percent chance of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in the election set for next month. This optimistic portrayal starkly contrasts with various polls that suggest the race remains a tight contest.
The post quickly gained traction, amassing over 10,000 likes as his supporters responded enthusiastically with emojis, including raised fists and American flags, expressing their fervor and optimism.
The election odds cited by Mr. Trump originated from a crypto-driven gambling platform known as Polymarket. This innovative site allows users to place bets using digital currencies, and it has seen over $100 million wagered on the outcome of the presidential race, transforming it into a notable online betting phenomenon for the 2024 election cycle.
Elon Musk has also endorsed Polymarket’s odds on social media, asserting that they are “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.” Major news outlets, including CNN, have incorporated these projections into their election coverage. As the betting market has shifted significantly in favor of Mr. Trump, he has consistently highlighted these figures, aiming to forge an impression of inevitability regarding the election results. In his own words, he referred to it as “a gambling poll, as they call it,” adding, “I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means that we’re doing pretty well.”
However, the apparent lead suggested by Polymarket may be misleading. The odds began to swing in Mr. Trump’s favor this month after only four accounts—identifiable by user names such as Fredi9999 and PrincessCaro—placed bets exceeding $30 million on a Trump victory. This analysis was conducted by Chaos Labs, a provider specializing in crypto data.
On Thursday, Polymarket revealed that all four accounts were, in fact, controlled by a single individual, described as a French national with experience in the financial services sector. The platform did not disclose the identity of this individual, leaving an air of mystery surrounding the significant financial backing behind the bets.
