Trump’s Election and Its Implications for Ukraine
Following Donald Trump’s election as the next President of the United States, questions have resurfaced about how his leadership might influence the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Despite his bold claims of being able to “settle the war in 24 hours,” there remains considerable uncertainty regarding his actual plans and strategies.
Peter Dickinson, editor-in-chief of the Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert, emphasizes the challenge of predicting Trump’s actions. He states, “Trump is an incredibly unpredictable politician, perhaps the most unpredictable individual to have ever occupied the White House.” Dickinson adds that navigating Trump’s potential decisions is akin to playing a guessing game. It is possible that Trump will seek to negotiate a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he regards as a peer. “Trump’s worldview centers around key figures convening at the negotiating table, making deals, and resolving disputes among themselves,” Dickinson elaborates.
Related
- The EU’s great fear: Donald Trump winning and cutting all aid to Ukraine
The newly elected Vice President, JD Vance, has echoed sentiments favoring a diplomatic resolution with the Kremlin, insisting that the United States should not be embroiled in a conflict with Moscow. “We’re not in a war with Putin, and I don’t want to be in a war with Vladimir Putin’s Russia,” Vance asserted in a recent NBC interview. He further articulated on the Shawn Ryan Show podcast that a potential peace agreement could involve freezing the territories currently occupied by Russia, transforming the existing frontline into a fortified demilitarized zone to deter future invasions, and limiting Ukraine’s access to NATO and similar alliances.
Andy Hunder, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, expressed a more optimistic outlook following the presidential results. “I think this is a time of excitement. We anticipate that President Trump will surprise us,” Hunder shared with Euronews. “While we are uncertain about the nature of those surprises, we look forward to collaborating with President Trump and his new administration’s transition team.”
Trump’s Stance on Ukraine
During his previous administration, the U.S. did provide military aid to Ukraine, including the sale of Javelin anti-tank missiles in 2019, which proved pivotal in Ukraine’s defense against the large-scale invasion in 2022. Despite his general aversion to U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, Trump has maintained relatively amicable relations with Putin, referring to the Russian leader as “quite smart” for his actions in Ukraine. He has also criticized U.S. support for Ukraine, labeling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “the best salesman in the world” for securing American backing.
Interestingly, Zelenskyy was among the first global leaders to congratulate Trump on his recent election victory. He noted that they had discussed strategies to counter Russian aggression during their in-person meeting in September. “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in international relations. This principle is crucial for achieving a just peace in Ukraine, and I hope to implement it together,” Zelenskyy conveyed on the social platform X. He later reiterated his congratulations, acknowledging Trump’s significant campaign efforts that led to his electoral success, and expressed a desire for ongoing dialogue and collaboration.
Trump’s unpredictability fosters numerous theories about his potential actions. Dickinson posits that Trump’s primary fear is being perceived as weak. “He doesn’t want to be a loser; he despises losing,” Dickinson notes, suggesting that this mindset may compel Trump to adopt a tougher stance against Putin, potentially offering greater support to Ukraine than the Biden administration has. Furthermore, Trump is less constrained by traditional concerns regarding escalation, which could lead to more aggressive policies.
Public sentiment in Kyiv remains divided. Anhelina Karpuk, a first-year business student, expressed concern about Trump’s perception of the conflict, stating, “The fact that he does not regard this as a genuine conflict, but merely a misunderstanding between two presidents, is alarming. I fear the decisions he might make.” Conversely, Daria Ponomarenko, an ESG manager at Raiffeisen Bank, expressed a more resigned acceptance: “It was entirely predictable. I anticipated this outcome, and I believe Ukraine must respect the choice made by the American electorate,” Ponomarenko concluded.
