Trump’s Election Day Dynamics

Former President Donald J. Trump approached Election Day with a passionate and unwavering base of supporters. Having previously run for the presidency twice, he also carried the weight of felony convictions and a significant number of voters who held unfavorable views towards him. In essence, he was a candidate burdened by considerable challenges. However, Mr. Trump managed to navigate these obstacles, positioning himself as a viable alternative to an electorate increasingly discontented with the current administration under President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Should Mr. Trump secure victory, here are some key points that analysts are likely to emphasize:

A Pervasive Sense of Discontent

A substantial majority of voters expressed that they believed the country was on the wrong track, with a staggering 74 percent affirming this sentiment in an ABC/Ipsos poll released just before the election. Historically, this single statistic — the percentage of voters feeling that the nation is moving in the wrong direction — has been a reliable indicator that the incumbent party is likely to lose the presidency.

If Mr. Trump were to win, it would signify his ability to effectively burden Ms. Harris with President Biden’s track record. Additionally, he would have resonated with voters’ anxieties through his stark portrayal of the nation’s current state, while also invoking nostalgic memories of a supposedly better era during his presidency.

The Economic Landscape

The state of the economy, or rather the public’s perception of it, has illustrated the prevailing unease among voters. Despite a modest price increase of just 2.1 percent in September compared to the previous year, and an impressive economic growth rate of 2.8 percent in the last quarter, a staggering 75 percent of voters reported that they believed the economy was struggling, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in October.