Trump and Lake: A Study in Contrasts

When it comes to substance and style, there exists a notable similarity between former President Donald J. Trump and Kari Lake, the outspoken former news anchor who is currently vying for a Senate seat in Arizona. Both individuals gained prominence through their television careers and have exhibited a penchant for fiery rhetoric that resonates with the Republican Party’s base. Additionally, both have adamantly refused to concede their most recent elections.

However, the polling landscape reveals a significant divergence between the two in the state of Arizona. While Mr. Trump consistently garners competitive polling numbers, Ms. Lake finds herself trailing her Democratic opponent, Representative Ruben Gallego, by a considerable margin.

This phenomenon is not restricted to Arizona; it is also evident in at least two other critical battleground states. In Nevada, for example, Sam Brown, a decorated Army veteran who received Mr. Trump’s endorsement to rise above a crowded primary field, is currently lagging behind Senator Jacky Rosen, a relatively low-profile yet effective freshman Democrat. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, businessman David McCormick has started to narrow what was previously a nine-point deficit against Senator Bob Casey, as per last month’s polling data.

The trend of ticket-splitting—where voters opt for candidates from different political parties for various offices—has been declining in the United States amid increasing partisan polarization. Yet, this year’s polling suggests that a segment of conservative-leaning voters in key states is choosing to reject Republican candidates for the Senate even as they support the party’s presidential nominee. This trend could provide a critical advantage for Democrats as they strive to maintain their slim majority in the Senate.

As one independent pollster succinctly put it, “Many are trying to emulate Donald Trump; the problem is none of them are Donald Trump.”