Trump and Harris in Tight Race: Polling Insights

Trump and Harris Neck and Neck in Polling

Trump and Harris Neck and Neck in Polling

During one of his recent visits to Pennsylvania, Donald Trump was met with significant attention from the public and media alike. Credit: Michelle Gustafson for The New York Times.

The latest New York Times/Siena College national poll reveals an intriguing development: Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are currently tied at 48 percent. When factoring in the presence of minor party candidates, Mr. Trump holds a slim lead of one percentage point. This indicates a remarkably close race, and it’s not an isolated finding. In recent days, several reputable polls have shown an even contest, with some suggesting Mr. Trump may have moved ahead. For instance, a Wall Street Journal poll indicates Mr. Trump leading by three points, while a CNBC poll shows him ahead by two points.

As of late Thursday, the New York Times polling average has narrowed Ms. Harris’s lead down to just one point. This data raises a compelling possibility that might have seemed far-fetched at the start of the election cycle: a potential Trump victory in the national popular vote. Historically, Democrats have won the national popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections, leading many to believe it was a secure advantage. However, many of these victories were closely contested, and a Republican win has always been a possibility under different circumstances.

If Mr. Trump were to triumph in the popular vote this time around, the rationale would be clear. The polling indicates that Ms. Harris is grappling with significant challenges, which typically would jeopardize a candidate’s chances:

  • Only 28 percent of voters believe the country is on the right track. Historically, no party has managed to retain the White House or win the popular vote when such a low percentage of voters feel positively about the direction of the nation.
  • President Biden’s approval rating stands at a mere 40 percent. Again, no party has successfully held the White House or claimed the popular vote with such low approval ratings.

Beyond these statistics, Ms. Harris faces deeper challenges as well. Mr. Trump enjoys an edge on the crucial issue of the economy. Furthermore, a greater number of voters express trust in him regarding the issues that matter most to them.

Nevertheless, it is entirely plausible for Ms. Harris to secure a popular vote victory. Mr. Trump has his own vulnerabilities, some of which have resurfaced recently. For instance, his former chief of staff, John Kelly, described him as fitting the definition of a fascist, which could resonate negatively with certain voter segments. However, the current landscape suggests enough potential for a Trump popular vote win to be a real consideration.

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