The Uncertain Future of Syria: A Complex Tapestry of Power Struggles
In light of the dramatic developments unfolding in Syria, it appears that the nation is on the brink of entering an ambiguous phase that opens up a plethora of possibilities. A glance at the geopolitical map reveals numerous question marks that may linger without resolution for the foreseeable future. Who will ultimately govern the country? What will become of the allies of the ousted Bashar al-Assad regime in Tehran, Beirut, and Moscow? What fate awaits Syria in the aftermath of al-Assad’s rule?
Syria’s vulnerable counterpart, Lebanon, is currently engulfed in its own myriad of internal challenges, not least of which is the devastating war with Israel that has tragically claimed nearly 4,000 lives. Al-Assad’s former ally, Hezbollah, is now stretched thin due to its involvement in the conflict with Tel Aviv. The fragile 60-day ceasefire, which has been marred by daily violations from the Israeli side, has resulted in extensive destruction and loss of life, impacting even the Lebanese army, tasked with overseeing the ceasefire.
With the shifting political landscape in Damascus, the critical supply line from Iran to Hezbollah through Syria may be severed or, at best, face significant difficulties. Syria can no longer be regarded as the operational base for Hezbollah, which played an indispensable role in al-Assad’s efforts to regain control during the civil war after intervening in 2013. This intervention was justified under the guise of safeguarding Lebanese territory from attacks by opposition groups and protecting the revered shrine of Sayyida Zainab, located in the outskirts of Damascus, a site of significant importance for Shiite Muslims. Any perceived threat to this site could exacerbate sectarian tensions between Sunni and Shiite communities.
Turkey and Israel: Potential Beneficiaries?
Turkey has sought to distance itself from the recent advancements made by armed groups in Syria, reiterating its non-involvement in the ongoing operations. This is despite its longstanding support for the opposition since the uprising against al-Assad commenced, including opening its borders to displaced Syrians and hosting opposition leaders while providing assistance to the Syrian National Army. However, the future remains uncertain regarding the fate of the estimated three million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey, especially if security is reestablished in Syria and the nation avoids spiraling into another chaotic phase.
Meanwhile, Israel, which has occupied the contentious Golan Heights region of Syria for over 57 years, recently mobilized its air and ground forces in anticipation of potential emergencies. This follows its formal annexation of the territory, a move recognized by the Trump administration despite clear international resolutions deeming the Golan Heights as occupied land. Israel is likely to maintain close surveillance on developments in Syria, particularly if a new regime emerges that is introspective and focused on internal issues rather than claiming rights to the Golan Heights or advancing toward Lake Tiberias.
Iran: The Largest Casualty
Iran stands to be the most significant loser in this shifting landscape, having lost a crucial ally in Syria. The historical ties between the two nations extend back decades, well before Bashar al-Assad’s ascension to power. The interests of an Islamist regime borne from the Khomeini revolution of 1979 converged with those of a secular nationalist regime led by the Ba’ath Party under Hafez al-Assad. During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, Hafez al-Assad provided support to Tehran, and both nations found common ground in their animosity toward Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and opposition to U.S. involvement in the region.
The role of Quds Force commander General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad in early 2020, was pivotal in sustaining the al-Assad regime and orchestrating military operations in Aleppo in 2015. His leadership during the siege of Syria’s largest city earned him the moniker “Butcher of Aleppo” among opposition forces. With the loss of its ally in Damascus, Iran finds itself in a precarious position, adopting a cautious approach to recent changes as it grapples with its own challenges, including escalating tensions with Israel and the U.S., especially with the impending transition to a new administration led by President-elect Donald Trump.
What Lies Ahead for Moscow?
Moscow, a key player in the Syrian conflict, faces significant repercussions if al-Assad’s regime collapses. The Kremlin relies on military bases in Syria, including the Hmeimim Air Base and the Tartus naval base, which provide Russia crucial access to the Mediterranean. Since 2015, Russia has provided substantial military support to al-Assad’s regime, deploying approximately 4,000 troops on the ground under the pretext of combatting IS and extremist factions. The fall of al-Assad would deprive Moscow of its foothold in Syria, especially given the animosity of various armed groups toward Russian interests. This shift could also impact the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where Putin has been engaged in warfare for nearly three years.
Concerns Over a Libyan or Afghan Scenario
With armed groups, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), now controlling significant territory in Syria, the ideological diversity among these factions raises grave concerns about the nation’s future. The potential for division and the absence of a democratic transition loom large, evoking fears of a situation akin to Libya, where the country has been fragmented since the uprising against Muammar al-Gaddafi in February 2011. Libya remains divided between an internationally recognized government in Tripoli and a rival government in the east led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, leading to ongoing conflict and instability.
Another troubling parallel is the scenario in Afghanistan, where the Taliban swiftly seized control on August 15, 2021, establishing a hardline Islamist regime following the withdrawal of U.S. forces. The question arises: what if Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has been instrumental in opposing the al-Assad regime, manages to assume control in a country characterized by its ethnic and confessional diversity, including Kurds, Alawites, Druze, Shiites, and Sunnis, alongside an integral Christian community?
Related
- Rebels to form interim government after al-Assad flees — live updates
- Al-Assad’s reign is over: Who are the key players in the new Syria and who stands to gain or lose?
The short answer to the myriad of questions surrounding Syria’s future is that it is too early to draw conclusions. As rebels work to establish a provisional government free from the al-Assad family’s grip for the first time in over five decades, the nation now faces an incredibly daunting task: healing the deep wounds inflicted by years of civil war and moving away from decades of totalitarian rule.
