The Impact of the Ukraine War on North Korea’s Military Aspirations

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is presenting North Korea’s military with a unique opportunity that it has long desired: the chance to assess its new weaponry and evaluate the readiness of its officers for contemporary warfare, as noted by analysts and officials in South Korea on Wednesday.

In recent weeks, Ukrainian leaders, including President Volodyr Zelensky, have reported that North Korea is not only supplying substantial quantities of artillery shells and ballistic missiles to Russia but is also dispatching military engineers and soldiers to assist Russian forces on the battlefield. Last week, South Korea’s Defense Minister, Kim Yong-hyun, remarked that it is “highly likely” that several North Korean soldiers have already perished in the conflict, with more troops expected to be sent to bolster Russian efforts.

This historical alliance is reminiscent of the support Moscow provided to North Korea during the Korean War over seventy years ago, when it supplied weapons and pilots. In a dramatic reversal, North Korea’s current assistance to Russia in a distant conflict is reshaping the narrative of their past interactions. Analysts suggest that this development is also enhancing North Korea’s military readiness on the Korean Peninsula, especially amid escalating tensions with South Korea.

Since the end of the Korean War, North Korea has refrained from engaging in another significant military conflict. However, it has actively sought out opportunities to provide weapons and military support to allied nations during their times of need. For instance, North Korea sent pilots to assist North Vietnam during the Vietnam War and also provided aerial support for Egypt during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Furthermore, according to Tass, the Russian state news agency, North Korea dispatched missile technicians and two small units of combat troops to aid the Assad regime during the Syrian civil war in 2016.

“This appears to be a consistent pattern: when North Korea sells weapons to nations embroiled in conflict, it often sends personnel not only to help those nations operate the arms but also to engage in combat themselves,” explained Yang Uk, a military expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. “They seem to seize every opportunity to engage in warfare and gain invaluable experience.”

If North Korea indeed sends ground forces to Ukraine, it would mark their first significant military engagement in decades, providing a critical opportunity for their officers to gain insights into modern warfare, including the strategic use of drones. Mr. Yang emphasized, “They will likely analyze how the knowledge and experience acquired in Ukraine can be applied to the Korean Peninsula.”