The Strategic Shift in U.S.-China Relations Under Trump
Donald Trump’s initial term marked a pivotal transformation in U.S. policy towards China. His unique approach, characterized by a combination of economic pressure, unpredictability, sanctions, and tariffs, effectively unsettled Beijing. This represented a significant turning point: the United States transitioned from a stance of passive acceptance of China’s revisionist ambitions to one of active and assertive opposition. The Biden administration has sensibly continued, and in some instances, broadened this strategic framework.
Should Mr. Trump secure a second term, it could potentially position America to decisively prevail in this strategic contest. China currently grapples with a multitude of challenges, particularly a stagnating economy, rendering it susceptible to the president-elect’s assertive tactics. If Mr. Trump can merge the bold and often brash style of his first term with a more coherent strategy and enhanced discipline, the next four years may present an exceptional opportunity to keep Beijing on the defensive, fundamentally altering the dynamics of the rivalry in favor of the United States.
From China’s perspective, the optimal outcome of the U.S. election would have been the continuation of the Biden-Harris administration’s cautious approach. Although President Biden implemented targeted measures against Beijing, his focus on détente and reluctance to escalate tensions would have granted China’s leader, Xi Jinping, the stability he requires to tackle domestic issues and pursue China’s ambitions in critical sectors such as technology, trade, and the future of Taiwan.
However, Mr. Trump is not simply interested in managing competition with Beijing; he is determined to emerge victorious. His zero-sum approach, combined with unconventional tactics and an emerging cabinet of China hawks, is likely to deprive Mr. Xi of the necessary breathing room he desperately seeks. This dynamic could force the Chinese leader into a high-stakes test of wills, one that he may find difficult to control or predict.
Despite a decade of projecting an image of outward strength, China is, in reality, experiencing a decline. This downturn has been exacerbated by Mr. Xi’s mismanagement, oppressive policies, and strategic miscalculations. The country is confronting crippling debt, record-high youth unemployment, and a rapidly aging population. Xi’s ideology-driven approach, which places the Chinese Communist Party at the center of economic decision-making, has diminished business confidence, triggered capital flight, and caused unprecedented declines in foreign investment. As a result, China’s era of robust growth is transitioning into a stagnation period reminiscent of Japan’s so-called lost decade—a time marked by deflation and economic inertia from which Japan has yet to fully recover. Even Mr. Xi himself warned citizens last year to brace for the possibility of having to “eat bitterness,” a Chinese expression signifying hard times ahead.
Conversely, the U.S. economy is gaining momentum, and Mr. Trump—who perceives China’s centrally planned, manufacturing-centric model as predatory and detrimental to American workers—appears poised to strategically leverage U.S. strengths, just as he did during his first term. He has proposed imposing tariffs as high as 60 percent on Chinese imports, which, according to various estimates, could potentially reduce China’s gross domestic product by up to two percentage points.
