The State of Democracy in 2023: An Overview
In this pivotal election year, a staggering quarter of the global population found themselves eligible to cast their votes. Yet, an air of pessimism regarding the future of democracy has permeated the thoughts of politicians, civil society leaders, media analysts, and political scholars alike. The recent victory of Donald Trump, marked by his demagoguery and aggressive rhetoric targeting what he labeled as “enemies from within,” has only amplified concerns that democracy is facing significant challenges.
Even prior to the U.S. elections, prominent liberal thinkers in the United States and across Western nations voiced apprehensions about a potential regression into authoritarianism on a global scale — some even warning of an impending resurgence of fascism. Political scientists have raised alarms about the erosion of civil liberties and the deterioration of democratic institutions, a phenomenon often referred to as “democratic backsliding.” This term encompasses the troubling decline in the number of democratic governments worldwide alongside the alarming rise of autocratic leaders.
This year’s election results have contributed to this bleak narrative. For instance, in Indonesia, voters opted for a candidate who was the former right-hand man of a long-standing dictator, a figure alleged to have presided over severe human rights violations. Similarly, in El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele, known for his hardline approach to crime that has effectively stifled his political opposition, secured a decisive victory for a second term in February.
Moreover, radical right-wing parties have made significant strides in various European nations, including eastern Germany, the Netherlands, and Austria. In France, the far-right National Rally may have placed third in the parliamentary elections, but it still achieved historic gains among voters, positioning its popular former leader, Marine Le Pen, as a strong contender for the presidency in 2027.
While these developments are undeniably concerning, they do not necessarily herald a global domino effect that would undermine electoral processes or dismantle constitutional protections. In fact, by numerous metrics, the integrity of elections appears to be quite resilient around the world.
According to recent research, the frequency of governmental changes resulting from elections has remained stable over the past two decades. Furthermore, there is no substantial evidence indicating a decline in electoral competition. If the fears of democratic backsliding were indeed justified as the election year commenced, we would have expected to observe incumbents consolidating power and a noticeable decrease in electoral competition. Yet, this has not been the case.
