In the pivotal year of 2008, then-Senator Barack Obama, alongside his newly appointed running mate Joe Biden, launched their general-election campaign in Beaver County, Pennsylvania. This area, located northwest of Pittsburgh, is characterized by its culturally conservative values and a lingering sense of loss from the closure of steel mills that once fueled its economy. Fast forward to 2020, and Mr. Biden found himself returning to Beaver County just hours before Election Day, delivering his closing arguments to the voters. More recently, in August, the first stop for Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz on their bus tour through Western Pennsylvania was also Beaver County.

Each of these visits by Democratic leaders reflects a concerted effort to win over the loyalty of working-class, predominantly white voters residing in Beaver County and similar regions across Western Pennsylvania and the broader industrial Midwest. However, with each passing election, the Democrats have encountered increasing skepticism and wariness from these communities.

Gone are the days when Democrats aspired to achieve outright victories in these areas. Now, the party’s objective has shifted to minimizing their losses, particularly in light of the staggering defeats that contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign downfall. The focus has evolved into a more tempered approach: to simply lose by a narrower margin.

“The race is incredibly tight,” stated Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who successfully secured victory in Beaver County during his 2022 gubernatorial campaign. He, along with other prominent Democrats, has actively campaigned for Ms. Harris in challenging blue-collar and rural regions. “Four, five, six hundred additional votes in a place like Beaver County could truly be a game changer.”