The Role of Overseas Voters in the 2024 US Presidential Election

The Influence of Overseas Voters in the Upcoming US Presidential Election

As the race heats up between presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, recent polls indicate that they are running neck and neck within the margin of error. Despite the anticipated tight race, the role of a significant demographic—Americans living abroad—remains largely uncertain. An estimated 2.8 million citizens, excluding military personnel, are eligible to vote from overseas, according to the US Department of Defense. Depending on their home states, these voters could sway the election results. Some organizations even project that the number of US voters living abroad could be even higher.

In the 2020 election, over 224,000 ballots were cast by citizens residing overseas, representing a turnout rate of 7.8%. This is notably lower than the 66% turnout rate among the general US population in the same election cycle.

Motivation Among Overseas Voters

James McCann, a political science professor at Purdue University in Indiana, has conducted studies on US voters living in Canada and Mexico. He asserts that these expatriates remain engaged and passionate about American politics. “There is a significant level of motivation and interest, even among those who have lived outside the US for decades,” McCann shared with Euronews. “When asked if they follow US politics closely or care about elections, many overseas voters express strong interest.”

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Generally, US citizens living abroad tend to be relatively well-resourced, which aids them in navigating the voting process. However, one notable challenge is that political parties often do not allocate as many resources for overseas voters as they do for domestic ones. Currently, only the Democratic Party maintains an organizational presence abroad.

“The challenge of organizing voters overseas is substantial; it requires a significant commitment,” McCann explained.

One engaged voter, Sophia, a 30-year-old project manager residing in Berlin, shared her perspective with Euronews. She believes her vote can make a difference in her home state of Florida. “While I’m not particularly enthusiastic about Kamala Harris, I believe she would be a better choice than Trump, especially since she represents a younger generation of candidates,” Sophia noted, expressing her concerns about preserving access to abortion rights.

In Florida, a citizen-led initiative is on the ballot aimed at protecting abortion access, prompting Sophia to ensure her registration to participate in the decision-making process. “Abortion is not just a political issue; it’s a matter of life and death,” she emphasized. “When I consider how to vote, my thoughts are centered on the individuals in my home state who may need to travel long distances for essential healthcare services.”

The Challenge of Identifying Overseas Voters

Sharon Manitta, the global press secretary for Democrats Abroad based in the UK, highlighted the difficulties faced in reaching overseas voters due to the absence of a centralized database for Americans living abroad. “We continually strive to connect with Americans everywhere, utilizing social media, press outreach, and even participating in local farmer’s markets,” she explained.

However, one of the “most significant hurdles” is that many people are unaware of their voting rights or the registration process. To address this, organizations have worked diligently to make voting information more accessible, even as each state has its own set of rules.

Both presidential candidates have actively sought the support of US voters living abroad. In a recent letter, Democratic candidate Harris acknowledged the “unique challenges” faced by Americans overseas, such as limited access to consular services and financial resources. Meanwhile, in a video message, Republican candidate Trump promised to eliminate double taxation for US citizens living abroad. Although the Republican Party lacks a formal overseas presence, a political action committee exists to engage this demographic.

Potential Impact of Overseas Votes on the Election

With Harris and Trump polling closely in key swing states, analysts expect that the margin of victory will be razor-thin. “Even if turnout from abroad is relatively low—perhaps in the range of 10% to 15%—if that turnout exceeds previous patterns, it could significantly impact the election,” McCann stated. “Even a few thousand votes from this group could make a critical difference in the final outcome.”