In recent times, there has been a notable surge in support for radical, far-right, and anti-establishment parties across various regions within the European Union (EU). Significant events, such as the Freedom Party (FPÖ) clinching victory in Austria’s national elections, the regional advancements of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), and the impressive performance of nationalist parties in the European parliamentary elections held in June, underscore a growing wave of populism sweeping through the bloc. These parties, often previously isolated by a cordon sanitaire, are now influencing policy discussions even while holding minority positions in their respective legislative bodies.

Despite the rising visibility of these extremist factions, the center ground still maintains a dominant presence within the European Parliament. However, this central bloc now faces increased challenges from extremist forces that lie at both ends of the political spectrum. As a result, mainstream parties will be compelled to engage with these radical groupings on critical issues, particularly migration policy, to mitigate any potential loss in public support. Currently, the right side of the spectrum is characterized by three competing vote blocs: the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the Patriots for Europe, and the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN). Together, these factions account for approximately 25% of the legislature, a notable increase from 17% five years ago.

Conversely, the left side of the spectrum has also seen a rise in support, emboldened by recent electoral successes of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in Germany and the New Popular Front in France. While these leftist groups may hold divergent views on many issues, they share a common skepticism towards the EU institutions and exhibit a willingness to adopt pro-authoritarian positions. Moreover, they are unified in their determination to reinforce national identities and seem to support a withdrawal from crucial geopolitical alliances. Navigating the complexities of pressing issues, such as support for Ukraine and safeguarding against Chinese influence, may prove challenging in this environment and will require careful handling.

Who Supports What and Why?

According to new research from the Political Capital Institute, the ECR is likely to remain the most critical of Russia and China among these extremist factions. This is largely due to the strong positions of its key members, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Jarosław Kaczyński’s Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland, both of whom have consistently supported resolutions condemning the actions of the Kremlin and Beijing.

On the other hand, the far-right ESN, led by the AfD, adopts a more authoritarian-friendly and pro-China stance. The Patriots, under the leadership of Jordan Bardella from the National Rally, currently exhibit division, primarily due to the influence of Viktor Orban, who has been working to strengthen ties between his government and China through what he calls an “all-weather partnership.” At the opposite end of the political spectrum, the radical left group, which includes Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, is unlikely to be receptive to commission proposals from either end and will likely attempt to soften the legislature’s stringent position on China, given its historically lenient stance towards Beijing.

The European Parliament’s initial plenary session has already hinted at its voting stance regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine. Lawmakers passed a resolution with overwhelming support, reaffirming the importance of continued EU backing for Ukraine.

Examining the voting patterns reveals that the ECR maintained its critical stance on Russia, positioning itself as the most Russia-critical group among the radical, far-right, and far-left factions. A notable development was that, while a significant majority of the Patriots, including the National Rally and Fidesz—who have historically been soft on Russia—voted against or abstained from supporting the resolution, some other members (like Lega and ANO) shifted from their previous Kremlin-critical positions to align more closely with the rest of the group.

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Ambitions and Distrust

Insights from our study, along with the potential for change demonstrated by certain parties, indicate that despite existing fractures within specific groups, there may be more opportunities for cooperation across the political spectrum than was previously assumed. This is where leaders like von der Leyen and her colleagues could find fertile ground for collaboration. For instance, they might garner support for a united front against China’s assertiveness from the ECR and certain factions within the Patriots, while also potentially attracting votes from the Left on issues concerning the Ukraine conflict.

However, the ambitions of these parties, along with their long-standing distrust of EU institutions, will make cooperation a complex endeavor. It is evident that mainstream political factions have yet to discover an effective strategy to counter the growing influence of extremist politics on both the right and left, with pro-Russian and pro-Chinese sentiments likely to continue to proliferate.

The success of von der Leyen and her Commission will hinge on their ability to navigate the intricate web of voting dynamics that now characterizes the European Parliament, all while preventing the strengthening of ties between Brussels, Beijing, and Moscow. If they can successfully address the pressing issues that resonate with voters, they may offer a valuable blueprint for member states to contain and counteract the rise of radical politics over the coming years.

Péter Krekó, Richárd Demény, and Csaba Molnár are affiliated with the Budapest-based think tank, Political Capital. They are the authors of a new study titled “Growing influence of Russia and China in the new European Parliament?”.

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