Two Enigmas Surrounding the Current Election
As we delve into the dynamics of this election cycle, two perplexing phenomena stand out. The first is the astonishing stability of the polling numbers. Back in mid-June, the contest between President Biden and Donald Trump was a tight race, and even now, it remains essentially unchanged despite a series of significant events that have unfolded. The race began in a dead heat and has only become more competitive.
In a nation that supposedly boasts a plurality of independent voters, one would expect these individuals to respond to the shifting political landscape in a more fluid manner. Yet, the reality is quite the opposite. In our current political climate, polling figures seem to be remarkably stagnant.
The second mystery is the persistent 50-50 political landscape we’ve experienced for over a decade. Despite considerable shifts in voter demographics—where college-educated voters have increasingly leaned left, while their non-college-educated counterparts have gravitated toward the right—the two major parties remain almost perfectly matched in strength.
This state of affairs is not typical in American political history. Typically, one party emerges as the dominant force with a compelling vision for the nation, while the other takes on the role of the critique. For instance, during the 1930s, the Democrats were prominent with their New Deal, while the Republicans primarily voiced opposition. Similarly, in the 1980s, the Republican revolution under Reagan was met with Democratic resistance.
Today, however, neither party has succeeded in expanding its base to form a robust majority coalition. In a recent study titled “Politics Without Winners”, scholars Ruy Teixeira and Yuval Levin from the American Enterprise Institute highlight this stagnation. They observe, “Both parties are acting as if they are in the minority, each focused mainly on the failings of the other party, lacking a serious strategy to significantly broaden their electoral appeal.”
Teixeira and Levin point out that both parties seem content with the current deadlock. They argue that the parties “have prioritized the desires of their most fervent supporters—who would never consider voting for the opposing party—over the interests of persuadable voters who might swing either way.” This has led to a situation where both parties “celebrate narrow victories as if they were overwhelming successes, while dismissing close defeats, mistakenly interpreting both outcomes as reaffirmations of their existing strategies.”