The Paradox of Perception and Reality in Crime Rates
Throughout the pandemic, there was a noticeable surge in violent crime. However, as we reached 2023, the statistics revealed that violent crime was approaching its lowest levels in over five decades. Astonishingly, a Gallup poll indicated that 77 percent of Americans believed crime was on the rise. This sentiment resonates deeply in my daily interactions. People frequently express their feelings of insecurity about their neighborhoods, and there is palpable frustration surrounding this issue. I encountered this pervasive concern during my time in San Francisco, and it remains a constant theme in New York, where I currently reside.
I’ve come across individuals in New York who may not be heavily involved in politics, yet they consistently vote. Traditionally, they have leaned towards Democratic candidates, but now many are considering Republican options solely based on their perceptions of safety. This shift is evident on a national scale, as Democrats increasingly recognize the challenges they face regarding crime perception. In 2020, the party championed criminal justice reform, but now, figures like Kamala Harris emphasize her role as California’s top law enforcement official.
Simultaneously, many Democrats I know express frustration over this disconnect. The data shows that violent crime is decreasing, not increasing. So why aren’t people acknowledging these numbers? This situation has begun to mirror the economic discussions we’ve observed throughout the past year. While the economy appears to be performing well based on key indicators, there is widespread anger and dissatisfaction among the public. One can argue that the public is mistaken in their perceptions, or we can explore what the data might be overlooking.
In my view, there is a crucial element absent from the violent crime statistics: disorder. Charles Fain Lehman, a researcher at the Manhattan Institute specializing in crime and drug policy, authored an insightful piece in his newsletter, The Causal Fallacy, that delves into this very question. To gain further insight, I invited him onto my podcast to discuss this topic in detail.
This excerpt has been edited from our conversation on my podcast. For the complete dialogue, tune into The Ezra Klein Show.
The Hidden Politics of Disorder
The crime researcher Charles Fain Lehman explores the reasons behind the public’s feelings of unsafety, despite the declining rates of violent crime.
