Understanding the Impact of Gaza’s Conflict on U.S. Elections
During the recent presidential campaign, journalists attempting to gauge the electoral implications of Israel’s ongoing conflict in Gaza primarily concentrated on the perspectives of Arab and Muslim voters, especially in Michigan. This focus is certainly understandable. For instance, in Dearborn, Michigan—a city with a significant Arab American population that supported Joe Biden in the 2020 election—Donald Trump managed to secure about six percentage points more than Kamala Harris.
However, analyzing the political repercussions of the Gaza conflict solely through the lens of identity politics overlooks a critical underlying factor. In the past year, the extensive violence and humanitarian crisis inflicted upon Palestinians, largely funded by U.S. taxpayers and broadcast widely on social media, have ignited one of the most significant waves of progressive activism seen in a generation. Many Americans who have mobilized in response to their government’s role in the devastation of Gaza do not necessarily have personal ties to either Palestine or Israel. Similar to the wave of activism that arose during protests against South African apartheid or the Vietnam War, their motivations are rooted in moral conviction rather than ethnic or religious affiliations.
The intensity of outrage has been particularly pronounced among Black Americans and younger demographics. This past spring, solidarity encampments supporting the Palestinian cause sprang up on over 100 college campuses across the nation. In February, the Council of Bishops of the African Methodist Episcopal Church, one of the leading Black religious organizations in the U.S., labeled the conflict in Gaza as a “mass genocide” and called for the Biden-Harris administration to cease its financial support. By June, the NAACP had also urged an end to the flow of weapons to Israel. A CBS News poll conducted in June revealed stark generational divides: while the majority of voters aged 65 and older backed arms sales to Israel, voters under 30 opposed them by a staggering ratio of more than three to one. Furthermore, while 56 percent of white voters favored continuing weapon shipments, a significant 75 percent of Black voters opposed them.
These pre-election polling trends may shed light on the results observed on election night. While Kamala Harris embodies a more youthful image compared to Joe Biden, early exit polls from major outlets such as CNN, The Washington Post, Fox News, and The Associated Press indicated a noticeable drop in support for her among voters under 29 when compared to Biden’s performance in 2020. Additionally, although Ms. Harris is Black, she reportedly performed slightly worse than Biden among Black voters according to exit polls from both CNN and The Washington Post. One specific exit poll from Fox News and The Associated Press suggested her decline was even more significant.
It is essential to recognize that many young and Black voters may have expressed dissatisfaction with the current economy. Some could have found appeal in Trump’s immigration rhetoric, while others may have been hesitant to support a female candidate. Yet, these broader trends do not entirely account for Ms. Harris’s underperformance, especially given that her results among older and white voters remained relatively stable. In fact, her share of support from white voters matched that of Biden’s, and among voters aged 65 and older, she even gained some ground.
