The Significance of Yahya Sinwar’s Death
The death of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, marks a pivotal moment that could potentially reshape the landscape of the Gaza conflict. This event not only opens the door to ending the current war, facilitating the return of Israeli hostages, and alleviating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, but it also sets the stage for unprecedented progress towards a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians. Furthermore, it could pave the way for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which would have far-reaching implications for relations with the broader Muslim world.
However, it is crucial to understand that Sinwar’s death, while significant, is not a panacea.
The sufficient condition for a lasting solution lies in whether Israel possesses a leader and governing coalition willing to seize the opportunity created by Sinwar’s demise. To put it plainly, can Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reconcile his self-proclaimed Churchillian image with the necessity of engaging in diplomacy that he has previously dismissed? This includes considering the involvement of a reformed Palestinian Authority from the West Bank in an international peacekeeping force that would take over Gaza, effectively replacing the Hamas-led administration under Sinwar.
In the past month, diplomatic discussions have intensified among key figures, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken — acting on the directives of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris — alongside Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed. These discussions have focused on strategies for the post-war period, emphasizing the need to rebuild Gaza, facilitate Saudi-Israeli normalization, and create conditions conducive to renewed negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians regarding their future in both Gaza and the West Bank.
The overarching concept involves Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas appointing the esteemed economist and former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad — or an individual of similar integrity — as the new Palestinian Prime Minister. This new leadership would spearhead a technocratic cabinet aimed at reforming the Palestinian Authority, eradicating corruption, and enhancing governance and security forces.
Such a reformed Palestinian Authority would then formally request and actively participate in an international peacekeeping force, potentially comprising troops from the UAE, Egypt, and possibly other Arab nations, along with contributions from European countries. This international force would gradually replace the Israeli military presence in Gaza. Subsequently, the Palestinian Authority would be tasked with the reconstruction of Gaza, utilizing relief funds sourced from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, various Arab Gulf states, European nations, and likely the United States.
