The potential victory of Donald J. Trump poses a significant challenge to America’s European allies, testing their ability to maintain unity, enhance their military capabilities, and safeguard their economic interests. As anticipation grows surrounding a possible Trump win, early efforts are already underway to secure ongoing support for Ukraine, ensure continuity within NATO, and devise strategies to counteract Mr. Trump’s threats to impose blanket tariffs on imported goods.

However, the journey ahead for Europe is fraught with obstacles. A second term for Trump could act as a catalyst, prompting Europe to strengthen its defenses in response to a less reliable America. Yet, it remains uncertain whether the continent is ready to seize this pivotal moment. With both the French and German governments currently weakened by internal political dynamics, constructing a robust European response may prove challenging.

Despite having endured one term of Trump and the ongoing war in Ukraine, European nations have exhibited a notable hesitance to adapt. According to Georgina Wright, the deputy director for International Studies at the Institut Montaigne in Paris, “A Trump victory is profoundly troubling for Europeans, as it forces them to confront a question they have long sought to avoid: ‘How do we navigate a relationship with a United States that increasingly views us as a competitor rather than a cooperative ally?’” She adds, “This situation should ideally unite Europe, but that does not guarantee that unity will materialize.”

The unpredictability of Trump, potentially amplified by a Republican sweep of both houses of Congress, raises further concerns among European allies. This unpredictability is particularly troublesome, as it presents challenges that cannot be easily anticipated or prepared for.