As the United States approaches its presidential election, military technology experts suggest that Europe may need to fill potential gaps in its supply of US-made weapons, depending on who occupies the White House. The US military maintains a significant presence in Europe, which includes heightened patrols in critical regions like the Baltic Sea and the deployment of over 100,000 troops across various bases on the continent.
However, a change in leadership in the US could lead to a redirection of military resources, potentially impacting the European Union’s (EU) defense capabilities. This article explores the military technologies that the EU might need to develop in light of a possible shift in US military support.
What Military Resources Does the US Provide to Europe?
According to Jan Joel Andersson, a senior analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), it is widely anticipated that the next US president will likely pivot military resources away from Europe and focus more on the Asia-Pacific region and the challenges posed by China. The United States supplies the bulk of Europe’s strategic enablers, which include the large aircraft and naval vessels that transport troops and essential materials across continents.
Andersson highlighted in a 2023 policy brief that Lockheed Martin, a US-based defense manufacturer, is the primary supplier of stealth strike fighters to the EU. At least ten European nations are in the process of acquiring around 500 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters for their air forces. He noted, “Here lies one of the significant challenges for the EU: ensuring ongoing and enhanced defense collaboration in the absence of strong American leadership.”
Another critical area where Europe may need to compensate is in the acquisition of Airborne Early Warning and Control (AWAC) systems. These large radar aircraft are vital for detecting enemy aircraft, ships, and incoming missiles from distances beyond the horizon, according to Andersson. The extent of weaponry the EU would need to procure or manufacture remains uncertain, as it largely depends on the changing landscape of US military assets and the nature of potential conflicts.
Andersson emphasized the urgent need for additional defense resources, stating, “The EU must act swiftly to bolster its military capabilities.”
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Former NATO official Jamie Shea pointed out to Euronews Next that regardless of the presidential outcome, neither candidate is likely to antagonize major defense contractors like Lockheed Martin or Boeing, which have established trade relations with Europe. Shea noted that the pressing concern is the US’s diminishing supply of essential materials that constitute military equipment, such as chemicals, explosives, and microprocessors. Increased global conflicts lead to a higher demand for these critical resources.
The EU’s Largest Rearmament Initiative Since the 1950s
The gradual transition away from reliance on US military support is something the EU has been preparing for over the past decade, according to Andersson. He characterizes this effort as the “most significant rearmament initiative since the 1950s.” The EU is investing in its defense capabilities through budget allocations, including the €8 billion set aside for the European Defence Fund for the years 2021 to 2027.
Various agreements between EU member states and their allies are also facilitating the development of indigenous military technologies. For instance, last week, Italian defense firm Leonardo and German defense company Rheinmetall announced the formation of a new partnership aimed at producing military combat vehicles within Europe.
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Additionally, collaborative efforts such as a joint program involving France, Germany, and Spain aim to develop the next generation of fighter aircraft and swarming drone technology. However, the first demonstration flight of these systems is not expected until 2027, with full operational capabilities projected for 2040.
A recent report titled “Future of European Competitiveness,” published in September by Mario Draghi, emphasizes that EU defense spending remains inadequate in light of current global challenges. Draghi’s analysis reveals that the EU requires an additional €500 billion over the next decade to meet existing demands effectively.
