The Impact of Inflation on American Voters

For years, Americans have been grappling with the burden of rising prices, which has significantly influenced voter sentiment and behavior, ultimately playing a role in the election of Republican candidate Donald J. Trump. However, the specifics of how Mr. Trump’s proposed policies would effectively alleviate these costs remain ambiguous. In fact, numerous economists have cautioned that his suggestions could potentially exacerbate inflation rather than mitigate it.

Inflation is a measure of how much prices increase over a specified period, typically calculated on an annual basis. Since 2022, inflation has surged dramatically, continuing at a rapid pace throughout 2023. Although the rate of price increases has started to slow, the effects of those two years of steep inflation have left many everyday items—ranging from groceries like eggs to housing costs and dining out—markedly more expensive than consumers recall from just a few years prior, specifically 2019 or 2020.

This persistent inflation has weighed heavily on consumer confidence, leading many voters to rate the nation’s economic performance poorly, despite the low unemployment rate and ongoing hiring by companies. Polls conducted in the lead-up to the election consistently highlighted the economy as a primary concern for voters. Many expressed the belief that Mr. Trump would be more adept at managing economic challenges compared to Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate. Although the perceived economic advantage of Mr. Trump over Ms. Harris narrowed over time, it never completely disappeared.

While the rapid inflation trend was a global phenomenon, Mr. Trump frequently attributed the blame for rising prices to the Biden administration. Exit polls indicated that this economic anxiety profoundly influenced voter decisions at the polls, with approximately three in four voters acknowledging that inflation had imposed significant hardships on their families over the past year.