The Impact of Donald Trump’s Victory on Europe’s Far-Right

For far-right leaders across Europe, Donald Trump’s triumphant bid for the US presidency is seen as a significant validation of their ideologies and political narratives. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban hailed it as “the victory that the world desperately needed,” while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni referred to the two nations as “sister nations.” In Germany, the co-chairperson of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party commented that the election outcome was not dictated by “woke Hollywood” but rather by the votes of hardworking Americans.

Europe’s populist parties resonate with Trump’s anti-immigration stance, his views on economic decline, disdain for the political elite, and skepticism towards international institutions. Consequently, the far-right in Europe perceives the US election results as a triumph that could influence their own political landscape.

“Trump’s victory will undoubtedly have repercussions for the far-right in the EU,” states Javier Carbonell, an analyst at the European Policy Centre. “We anticipate a normalization effect on voters, making them more comfortable with supporting far-right parties, thereby enhancing their influence within the European Union,” he elaborates. Carbonell also posits that Trump’s return to power may further normalize the rhetoric surrounding “disinformation” and “revenge” in political discourse.

However, Sophie Pornschlegel, deputy director at the Jacques Delors Institute, argues that the dynamics witnessed in the US cannot be directly mirrored in the EU. “Our electoral system is inherently less polarized than that of the United States, with distinct democratic structures and electoral laws,” she notes. Nevertheless, she cautions that this situation risks reinforcing certain positions, indicating a retreat from liberal and democratic values.

The Rise of the Far-Right in the EU

The far-right has firmly established itself within the EU’s political arena, amassing 187 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) after the June elections in 2024. These MEPs are categorized into three distinct groups:

• Patriots for Europe: This group encompasses Rassemblement National in France, Fidesz in Hungary, Vox in Spain, and Lega in Italy.
• European Conservatives and Reformists: This includes Frères d’Italie and the Law and Justice Party in Poland.
• Europe of Sovereign Nations: Primarily consisting of AfD members from Germany.

This trend is mirrored within individual EU member states. Following the early parliamentary elections in France in July, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National emerged as the third-largest political force in the National Assembly. Simultaneously, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) claimed victory in the parliamentary elections in September, surpassing the conservative party.

A Political Synchronization?

Does Donald Trump’s election victory, supported by 295 electors and a majority in the popular vote, signify a trend of political synchronization between Europe and the United States? While parallels can be drawn, it is crucial to recognize the limitations of such comparisons, as European populist parties have adopted varying strategies to carve out their electoral niches. Sophie Pornschlegel notes, “We observed this especially during the European elections when the Rassemblement National pursued a strategy of de-demonization to attract centrist voters.” In contrast, “the AfD has radicalized significantly compared to its earlier positions. Therefore, there are notable differences among these far-right factions.”

Despite the diverse strategic approaches taken by far-right parties to gain power, the underlying causes fueling their rise in public sentiment share commonalities, according to Javier Carbonell. “There has been a substantial cultural shift, along with a backlash against this transformation,” he explains. He identifies additional factors contributing to this populist momentum, such as economic challenges, automation, inflation crises, and the lingering effects of past debt crises.

The Risk of Fragmentation within the EU

The ascent of populist forces in Europe presents a formidable challenge to the European Union’s ability to formulate a unified response to protect the interests of its 27 member states, particularly in the context of the next American president. For instance, Donald Trump has signaled intentions to impose customs duties ranging from 10% to 20% on all foreign-manufactured products and has threatened to withdraw US support for Ukraine. Additionally, he may question the unconditional solidarity typically extended to NATO allies that do not meet the minimum 2% threshold for defense spending relative to GDP. The Atlantic Alliance remains a pivotal element of European security.

Sophie Pornschlegel concludes, “There are indeed positions that directly contradict our European interests,” emphasizing that this also pertains to the populist and nationalist parties within member states. “Ultimately, Trump may not be their ally but rather an adversary to transatlantic relations,” she warns.