The Book That Predicted the 2024 Election
The G.O.P. pollster Patrick Ruffini’s book “Party of the People” outlines the significant realignments reflected in this year’s election outcomes.
This is an edited transcript of an episode of “The Ezra Klein Show.” You can listen to the conversation by following or subscribing on the NYT Audio App, Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube, iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Being cautious about predictions regarding the dynamics of the 2024 election is wise. At the very least, one should be skeptical of experts who did not make their predictions prior to the election. However, Patrick Ruffini, a seasoned Republican pollster and founding partner at Echelon Insights, did precisely that.
In 2023, he released a book titled “Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP.” In this book, he posits two crucial arguments:
- First, he asserts that the educational divide reshaping American politics will persist, with non-college-educated voters leaning more conservatively and college-educated voters shifting even further to the left.
- Second, he contends that the election results from 2020, which appeared puzzling to many, were not mere anomalies.
During the 2020 election, Donald Trump significantly outperformed expectations based on pre-election polls. A key factor in this surprising outcome was his improved support among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters. This result was, to say the least, unexpected for many Democrats. The prevailing narrative was that Trump, often viewed as the embodiment of xenophobia, would alienate these critical demographics.
Democrats were deeply troubled by Trump’s remarks concerning immigrants, Muslims, and various racial communities. The assumption was that his divisive rhetoric would rally white voters but alienate nonwhite voters. However, the reality proved to be quite different. Biden, while securing the presidency in 2020, actually performed slightly better among white voters than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. In contrast, Trump made notable gains among nonwhite voters, challenging the conventional wisdom surrounding his candidacy.
