The Delicate Balance of U.S.-China Relations Under Trump
Over the past year, the United States and China have navigated their complex rivalry, striving to assure the international community that their escalating tensions would not devolve into outright conflict. However, the potential return of President Donald J. Trump to the White House poses a significant threat to this fragile equilibrium.
As a statesman, Mr. Trump is notoriously unpredictable. He thrives on a strategy that combines threats with flattery, keeping his global counterparts on edge. In his approach to China, he has made bold promises to implement widespread tariffs on Chinese exports, even suggesting duties could soar as high as 200 percent if China were to engage in any military action against Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own.
Despite this tough talk, Mr. Trump has also expressed admiration for Xi Jinping, China’s paramount leader. In a recent appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast, he labeled Xi as a “brilliant guy” for his ability to govern 1.4 billion people with what Trump described as an “iron fist.” This duality in Trump’s rhetoric creates a complex narrative that raises questions about his true intentions.
Regardless of the fluctuations in Trump’s statements, officials in Beijing have likely come to the conclusion—after witnessing Trump’s first term—that he is committed to a robust rivalry with China, irrespective of his public declarations. Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, remarked, “Xi Jinping is an unsentimental leader with a grim view of America’s motives towards China. While he might be open to establishing a more cooperative relationship with Trump at the leadership level, he would remain skeptical that a friendly personal rapport would mitigate America’s competitive stance toward China.”
In a notable moment from 2017, Mr. Trump, then serving as president, met with Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. This meeting was emblematic of the complicated dynamics between the two leaders, reflecting both the potential for collaboration and the underlying tensions that continue to characterize U.S.-China relations.
