For the past twenty years, the bond between Georgia and the West has been nothing short of a passionate romance. Nestled in the challenging terrain of the Caucasus and flanked by Russia, Turkey, and Iran, Georgia has long envisioned itself as a part of the Western community. European Union flags adorned government buildings, even when the prospect of membership felt like a distant dream. When Georgians discover that you are American, they often express heartfelt appreciation for the United States and gratitude for its support in their enduring struggle against their historical adversary, Russia.
For years, this affection was reciprocated warmly in Washington, Brussels, and other European capitals, where Georgia was celebrated as a valued partner — a beacon of Western values and a strategic stronghold for extending influence into the post-Soviet region. However, the tides have turned, and the romance now appears to be in jeopardy.
The ruling party, Georgian Dream, has adopted a stance that is increasingly hostile towards its Western allies. In retaliation, Western nations have imposed sanctions on senior Georgian officials, escalating tensions as Georgia approaches its parliamentary elections this Saturday. The United States and the European Union are openly expressing their discontent with Georgian Dream, albeit while attempting to maintain a facade of neutrality.
As the electoral landscape unfolds, polls in Georgia remain notoriously unreliable, making it difficult to predict the outcome of the elections. Nevertheless, even if the ruling party loses, the underlying issues that have led to Georgia’s estrangement from the West are unlikely to dissipate. The decline in relations, akin to a slow bankruptcy, unfolded gradually before culminating in a sudden and stark reality. There is no guarantee that these ties can be mended.
The immediate catalyst for the current crisis can be traced back to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Georgian Dream adopted a notably cautious approach, opting for neutrality amidst the conflict. This decision was not without reason; Georgia had previously suffered a devastating war with Russia in 2008, and the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine reignited fears of a potential repeat scenario.
Initially, Western policymakers exhibited understanding towards Georgia’s neutral stance, recognizing the precariousness of its situation. After all, Georgia has long sought a security guarantee from the West, yet its aspirations for NATO membership have remained unfulfilled. In the midst of striving to maintain neutrality in the Ukraine conflict, Georgia applied for and, last year, was granted candidate status in the European Union.
- Georgia’s historical ties with the West
- The rise of Georgian Dream and its impact on relations
- The significance of the upcoming parliamentary elections
- Western reactions and sanctions against Georgian officials
- The influence of Russia’s actions in Ukraine