The EU’s Anticipation of the US Presidential Elections

To say that the European Union is holding its breath over the outcome of the upcoming United States presidential elections would be an understatement. The results of this pivotal election could profoundly impact a wide array of policies within the EU, from trade relations and industrial subsidies to digital regulation and antitrust investigations. However, no other issue raises immediate concern quite like the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Any disruption, however minor, could drastically alter the dynamics on the battlefield.

The EU’s anxiety is rooted in the statements made by Donald Trump, the Republican frontrunner, who has openly expressed skepticism toward the United States’ financial support for Ukraine amid its struggle against Russian aggression. Earlier this year, as Congress deliberated on a foreign aid package that included an allocation of $60 billion (€55.4 billion) for military assistance to Ukraine, Trump sought to influence the negotiations by advocating that the aid be treated as a loan rather than a grant. In a post on Truth Social, the platform he owns, Trump declared, “We should never give money anymore without the hope of a payback, or without ‘strings’ attached. The United States of America should be ‘stupid’ no longer.”

Later, during a rally in June, Trump described Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that’s ever lived,” highlighting his perception of Zelenskyy’s success in extracting financial support from the U.S. “Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion,” Trump remarked. “He gets home and announces that he needs another $60 billion, and I say: it never ends. It never ends,” he added, eliciting cheers from the audience. “I will have that settled prior to taking the White House as president-elect.”

In July, Trump met with one of his staunchest allies in Europe, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, to discuss the conflict. Following their meeting, Orbán stated, “He will not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war. Therefore, the war will end, because it is obvious that Ukraine cannot stand on its own feet.” Orbán reinforced his stance in a pointed letter directed at fellow EU leaders, warning that Trump’s potential re-election could significantly alter the financial dynamics regarding support for Ukraine.

Brussels’ Concerns Over American Support

This looming shift in U.S. policy is a source of considerable concern for Brussels. From the early days of the invasion, EU leaders have maintained close communication with Washington to synchronize their responses and bolster the Western front against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under President Joe Biden, the EU found a steadfast ally who vehemently condemned Russia’s full-scale invasion as a flagrant violation of international law, affirming Ukraine’s right to defend its sovereignty. Although both sides have operated independently regarding policy choices, they have largely aligned their efforts in support of Ukraine’s military and economic stability, alongside imposing sanctions on Russia to cripple its war machinery.

The United States, as a leading manufacturer of military equipment, has focused primarily on supplying Kyiv with the advanced weaponry it needs to fend off invading forces, contributing over $64 billion (€59 billion) in military assistance since the conflict began, according to government data. This military aid has included long-range ATACMS missiles and critical Patriot air defense systems.

In comparison, the EU and its member states have provided military aid worth €43.5 billion, albeit facing notable challenges, such as failing to meet the target of delivering one million artillery rounds by March 2024 and a €6.6 billion fund that remains blocked by Hungary. The bloc has, however, witnessed greater success in delivering financial, economic, and humanitarian support, with €57.8 billion already allocated and more funds on the horizon.

Simultaneously, both the U.S. and EU have co-led several innovative initiatives at the G7 level, including implementing a price cap on Russian crude oil and facilitating a $50 billion (€45 billion) loan for Kyiv using frozen Russian assets as collateral. This cooperative dynamic is at risk of disintegrating should Trump win the election and follow through on his threats to withdraw American support.

The Potential Fallout of a Trump Victory

“That would create significant problems because Europe is not prepared to fill the void. It means that within three, four, or six months, Ukraine could find itself lacking essential resources to continue its defense efforts,” cautioned Sven Biscop, a program director at the Egmont Institute, in a recent interview. “I am confident that, regardless of the U.S. election outcome, the European Union will remain committed to Ukraine. However, the crucial question is: what is the endgame of our strategy?” Biscop continued. “Currently, we are providing incremental support, enough to maintain the status quo but not enough to liberate occupied territories. We seem to be hoping that ultimately, Putin will concede, but that is unlikely.”

Many in Brussels share the belief that the EU cannot simply step in and compensate for a sudden withdrawal of U.S. support. With an ailing economy, a less advanced defense industry, and the rising influence of far-right factions, the bloc lacks the capacity to shoulder the entire burden independently. This realization became evident last year when the $60 billion aid package stalled in the U.S. Congress, prompting EU officials to seriously contemplate the ramifications of an American retreat. “Can Europe fill the gap left by the U.S.? Certainly not. Europe cannot replace the U.S.,” acknowledged High Representative Josep Borrell at that time.

A similar sense of trepidation is palpable among EU officials and diplomats as the election date approaches, particularly as opinion polls indicate a tight race between Trump and his opponent, Kamala Harris, who has pledged to “stand strong” with Ukraine and continue G7 efforts to tighten sanctions on the Kremlin.

Meanwhile, Trump has avoided making any long-term commitments, instead suggesting a swift deal to end the war without elaborating on its potential terms. The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment. “I think if we win, we will resolve this very quickly,” Trump stated in late September after meeting with Zelenskyy. “But, you know, it takes two to tango.” These statements amplify concerns that if Trump fails to broker a deal—which he presents in a purely transactional light—he may lose interest in the conflict, leaving Ukraine vulnerable and Europe scrambling to fill the power vacuum.

A potential second Trump presidency could jeopardize the close transatlantic partnership that the Biden administration has worked diligently to cultivate with the EU. “It could introduce unnecessary friction in our cooperation at a time when we can least afford it, particularly within NATO,” warned David McAllister, an EPP MEP and chair of the European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, in a statement to Euronews. “Nevertheless, we must find a way to maintain as strong ties as possible, regardless of the election’s outcome, to ‘fireproof’ the EU-U.S. relationship.”