The End of the Obama Coalition: An Analysis
In my recent post-election essay, I posited that the 2024 election signifies a pivotal moment for the Democratic Party, marking the dissolution of what has been termed the “Obama coalition.” But what exactly does this entail?
To begin with, it suggests that the political strategies the Democrats have employed in hopes of transforming the coalitions that propelled Obama to victories in 2008 and 2012 into a lasting generational majority have ultimately faltered. The party has invested considerable effort over the past few years to fulfill what they believed were the desires of Black, Hispanic, working-class, and union voters. Yet, instead of solidifying allegiance among these critical demographics, the Democrats are witnessing a troubling shift as these voters increasingly gravitate toward Donald Trump.
Moreover, my argument extends beyond mere electoral dynamics to encompass the very structure of the Democratic Party itself. The Obama era represented more than just the influence of a singular leader; it was a complex amalgamation of institutions, power bases, and elite networks. Michael Lind, a columnist at Tablet and author of the book The New Class War, has characterized it as a kind of political machine, one that thrived on urban political backing, foundations, nonprofits, and mass media.
While I find merit in parts of Lind’s analysis, I diverge in my belief that this machine has functioned quite differently since Obama departed from the White House. In my view, it has transformed into a machine lacking a central authority, a development that has not bode well for the Democratic Party’s cohesion and effectiveness.
Understanding the Democratic Party requires a closer inspection of its constituent institutions — the very spaces where those who lead and staff the party congregate when they are out of power. These are the arenas where they pursue education, seek out deputies, hire staff, secure funding, and reconnect with former colleagues, all while continuing to absorb insights from their networks. This understanding is vital because it underscores the essence of what a political party truly is.
Consequently, I contend that the future of the Democratic Party will not merely hinge on the introduction of new ideas or campaign strategies. Instead, it will necessitate a profound reevaluation of its foundational structures and the relationships that underpin its political identity.
