Where Does This Leave Democrats?

The coalition that the Democratic Party built during the Obama years has significantly weakened. However, the Democrats now face a crucial decision regarding how to respond to this shifting landscape.

This is an edited transcript of an audio essay for “The Ezra Klein Show.” You can listen to the essay in the player above, or by subscribing to the podcast on the NYT Audio App, Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube, iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Reflecting on the 2004 election, I realize that, until now, it represented the most profound rejection of liberalism I have witnessed in my lifetime. In the year 2000, George W. Bush had emerged as an accidental president, having lost the popular vote and only clinching the Electoral College victory through a narrow win in Florida. Fast forward to 2004, the failures, lies, and disasters of his administration were glaringly apparent. The Iraq War had turned into a significant debacle, yet Bush transitioned from an accidental leader to a decisive victor. He won the popular vote decisively, and the electoral maps depicted a vast expanse of red across the center of the nation. What made that defeat especially painful for liberals was the fact that, by 2004, the American public was fully aware of Bush’s record and chose him regardless.

This scenario resembles what transpired on Tuesday night. Donald Trump’s victory, while not among the most overwhelming in American political history, still marked a significant shift. As I write this, estimates indicate that he is projected to have a 1.5-percentage-point lead in the popular vote. If this holds true—though it may fluctuate as California’s votes are counted—it will be less than Barack Obama’s wins in both 2008 and 2012, as well as George W. Bush’s in 2004 and Bill Clinton’s in 1992 and 1996. It may even end up being smaller than Hillary Clinton’s margin in 2016.

Nonetheless, it represents a considerable improvement compared to 2020, when Trump lost the popular vote by nearly five points. While I acknowledge that presidential elections are not solely determined by the popular vote, it is crucial to understand the prevailing sentiment in America, and the popular vote often reflects that more accurately than the narrow margins in battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

So, what accounts for Trump’s resurgence? One prevailing theory suggests this represents a post-pandemic, post-inflation, and anti-incumbent backlash. We have witnessed this phenomenon globally, with governments across the spectrum facing severe electoral repercussions. In the United Kingdom, the Conservative Party suffered its worst election results ever. In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party—confusingly a conservative party—also faced significant losses. Meanwhile, left-of-center governments in Sweden, Finland, and Portugal have fallen from grace. Looking to our neighbor to the north, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is grappling with plummeting popularity. As Matthew Yglesias noted, examining this trend internationally raises the question of why Trump didn’t achieve an even more significant victory. Had Nikki Haley been the candidate, she might have done just that.

However, Trump didn’t merely win the election; the Democrats lost it. President Biden, at the age of 81 and hovering around 40 percent favorability in most polls, should have refrained from running for re-election. For months, the Democratic leadership—barring a few notable exceptions like Dean Phillips—failed to acknowledge this reality. Despite numerous polls indicating that a majority of voters believed Biden was too old for the role, the party chose to stifle any serious challenges to his candidacy. They suppressed their own doubts and overlooked the sentiments of their base, let alone the additional voters they would need for a successful campaign in 2024.