The Decline and Current Challenges of New York City

In the tumultuous decade of the 1970s, New York City experienced a dramatic population decline, losing approximately 823,000 residents — a staggering reduction of over 10 percent. This exodus coincided with a significant surge in crime, which rose by a third, creating an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty. As countless people and businesses departed, the city became increasingly neglected; streets grew dirtier, parks fell into disrepair, and the subway system was marred by graffiti. The overall quality of life plummeted, and financial disaster loomed ominously on the horizon. By 1975, the city’s financial reserves were depleted, forcing it to rely on both state and federal assistance to avert bankruptcy. Remarkably, it took New York nearly two decades to reclaim its lost populace.

Today, in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, New York City finds itself grappling with a crisis reminiscent of the challenges faced in the 1970s. Census data from April 2020 indicated a record population of 8.8 million residents. However, by July of the following year, the city had seen a mass exodus of 550,000 people, equating to a 6 percent population loss (though some experts argue that the true figures may be lower, given potential overestimations in the 2020 census).

This troubling trend is not confined to New York City; it is mirrored across numerous major American urban centers such as San Francisco, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Boston. Each of these cities is grappling with either stagnating or declining populations, driven by escalating challenges related to quality of life and the cost of living. As residents flee, they take crucial tax revenues and spending power with them, exacerbating the fiscal challenges facing these cities.

In New York City, the essential element of urban living—quality of life—has significantly deteriorated. According to a recent survey by the nonpartisan Citizens Budget Commission, only 30 percent of residents now believe that life in the city is good or excellent, a sharp decline from half of the population in 2017. Safety concerns are also prevalent; only about 50 percent of residents feel secure using the subway during daylight hours, a stark contrast to over 80 percent who felt safe just a few years prior. Furthermore, a mere 10 percent of residents feel that the city is effectively addressing their housing needs, even as rents have surged by approximately 17 percent since the onset of the pandemic.

The quality of life in New York City is intrinsically linked to the city’s operating budget. Unfortunately, the financial resources allocated to agencies responsible for enhancing the urban experience—such as education, public safety, environmental initiatives, cleanliness, parks, cultural institutions, housing, and transportation—have barely increased. After years of consistent growth, with budgets rising nearly 4 percent annually for much of this century, the reality has now changed. With a significant number of people having left, the city is no longer able to generate the tax revenue necessary to invest in quality-of-life improvements. This creates a troubling cycle of decline rather than the positive growth cycle essential for any city’s continued success.

Ultimately, the most critical measure of a city’s vitality is its population growth. A city functions much like any other product; it has customers, competitors, and must be marketed effectively. New York City thrives when it remains an attractive choice for individuals and families looking for a place to call home.