The Critical Role of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Monitoring in Achieving Net-Zero Goals

Climate Now Debate: The Importance of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Monitoring

This week’s Climate Now debate will explore the critical role of monitoring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and its significance in the global pursuit of achieving net-zero emissions. Our expert panellists will discuss the current technological challenges that hinder accurate and comprehensive measurements of certain sources and sinks of GHGs, as well as potential improvements to these technologies.

The Role of Greenhouse Gas Monitoring in Emission Reduction

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) play a vital role in regulating our planet’s temperature. They act as a blanket, trapping heat close to the Earth’s surface, which is essential for maintaining the habitability of our oceans and ecosystems. However, since the onset of the industrial era, human activities have significantly increased the levels of these gases, leading to an alarming rate of global warming.

To combat this issue, it is imperative for nations, organizations, and businesses to enhance their understanding of how to measure, monitor, and model GHGs effectively. This understanding is crucial for identifying the largest emitters and evaluating the effectiveness of emission-reduction actions. Advanced technologies have been developed to track the concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere over time, requiring precise detection of minuscule amounts: carbon dioxide at hundreds of parts per million, methane at thousands of parts per billion, nitrous oxide at hundreds of parts per billion, and fluorinated hydrocarbons at even smaller concentrations.

The European Union and its member states are mandated to provide annual reports to the United Nations on their GHG emissions, alongside regular updates on climate policies and progress towards established targets. This involves thorough measurement of GHG emissionsā€”including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxideā€”across various sectors such as energy, industrial processes, land use, forestry, waste management, and agriculture. These data contribute to the EU’s greenhouse gas inventory, which tracks emissions from 1990 up to two years prior to the current year.

Moreover, GHG monitoring is essential for comprehending the function of natural ecosystems as either sources or sinks of carbon. Current estimates suggest that the world’s natural carbon sinks absorb approximately half of all human-generated emissions. However, recent research indicates that in 2023, the hottest year on record, forests, plants, and soils absorbed almost negligible amounts of carbon. Additionally, a US nonprofit, Amazon Conservation, utilized satellite data to evaluate carbon storage in the Amazon rainforest, concluding that deforestation might soon cause the Amazon to emit more carbon than it sequesters.

Despite advancements, significant gaps persist in our capability to accurately monitor GHG levels. Currently, much of the reporting on GHG emissions relies on estimates derived from emission factors, activity data, and reporting data. These information gaps lead to inaccuracies, biases, and omissions in emissions assessments. As a result, real-world data and newly developed measurement technologies are vital for decreasing reliance on estimates and enhancing the accuracy of emissions calculations.

Technological Innovations in Greenhouse Gas Monitoring

Greenhouse gases originate from a multitude of sources. Carbon dioxide is released when fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas are combusted for energy, as well as during wildfires and agricultural soil disturbances. Methane primarily emanates from livestock, oil and gas extraction sites, landfills, and wetlands, while nitrous oxide is produced from agricultural fields and manufacturing processes. There are seven main categories of GHG emissions: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). Each of these gases requires measurement at various scales, from specific smokestacks to a global perspective.

To achieve this, diverse technologies are utilized to identify sources, sinks, and fluxes, which are then integrated for enhanced accuracy and consistency. These technologies include analytical field devices and sensors, satellites, drones, balloons, and ground-based equipment.

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) is at the forefront of monitoring atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and methane. It employs ground-based instruments, airborne sensors, and satellite technology to gather data. CAMS also utilizes computer simulations to predict concentrations of these greenhouse gases based on extensive knowledge of atmospheric and biospheric conditions, alongside reported emissions.

Currently, Copernicus is collaborating with the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) to develop new CO2MVS satellites. These satellites aim to measure atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane with unprecedented precision and detail, allowing for global observation within just a few days. This technology will enable the identification of individual sources, such as power plants and fossil fuel production sites.

Furthermore, newer satellites like GHGSat, CarbonMapper, and MethaneSAT have been designed to monitor emissions plumes from smaller-scale sources with higher resolutions. One of our panellists, Bram Maasakkers, will discuss the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aboard the Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite, which generates daily global maps of various atmospheric gases, including methane, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide.

Challenges in Greenhouse Gas Monitoring: Fugitive Emissions and Sample Bias

When countries and companies adopt a bottom-up approach for emissions measurement, they focus on two main variables: the rate at which an activity generates GHG emissions and the duration of that activity. However, this system often fails to account for unexpected leaks and irregular emissions from sources like appliances or pipelines. According to one study, fugitive emissions constituted 5.3% of global GHG emissions in 2013. While a ‘typical’ leakage rate is now commonly included in emissions inventories, studies indicate that the issue is still significantly underestimated.

This bottom-up approach has proven to be less accurate, particularly in developing countries where national statistics are often unavailable. Additionally, it generally overlooks natural sources and sinks of GHGs, leading to uncertainty about the impact of various factors on rising GHG levels and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies.

Conversely, the top-down approach begins with total atmospheric GHG measurements in a given area and works backward to identify the contributing sources. This methodology includes fugitive emissions in the data, making source identification more straightforward. However, it can be challenging to quantify individual contributions accurately from the overall GHG measurements. Variations in atmospheric conditions such as pressure, temperature, and humidity can also affect the precision of these top-down measurements if sensors are not calibrated correctly.

Moreover, sample bias is a significant concern; when top-down measurements are taken at a specific time and location, they may not accurately represent emissions occurring at other times or in different areas.

Join us on October 21 for our debate, where our panellists will discuss the future of accurate global greenhouse gas monitoring.

Meet Our Esteemed Panellists:

  • Richard Engelen, Deputy Director, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
  • Richard Engelen is part of the Senior Management Team at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and serves as the Deputy Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, operated on behalf of the European Union. He is a scientific authority in remote sensing and data assimilation of atmospheric composition, particularly focusing on the carbon cycle. Engelen has authored approximately 50 international peer-reviewed publications and has contributed to numerous conferences and workshops.

  • Bram Maasakkers, Senior Scientist, SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
  • J.D. (Bram) Maasakkers is a scientist at the SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, focusing on understanding anthropogenic methane and carbon monoxide emissions through satellite observations. His experience includes a summer internship at Harvard as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group, where he worked on advanced atmospheric chemistry models. He became a PhD candidate in environmental science and engineering in 2013.

  • Oksana Tarasova, Senior Scientific Officer, World Meteorological Organisation
  • Dr. Oksana Tarasova has been with the World Meteorological Organisation since 2009 and currently serves as a Senior Scientific Officer in the Infrastructure Department. She has a background in Physics and holds a PhD in Atmospheric Physics. Tarasova focuses on international collaboration in atmospheric composition observations and analysis, with specific expertise in greenhouse gases, and has authored over 100 publications.

  • Amir Sokolowski, Global Director, Climate at CDP
  • Amir Sokolowski is the Global Director of the Climate Change Team at CDP, a not-for-profit organization that facilitates global disclosure systems for environmental impact management. Sokolowski has over 16 years of experience working with governments and participating in international climate negotiations, contributing to the development of climate governance. He holds an MPhil in environmental law from the University of Oxford and a BA in Medieval History from Tel Aviv University.

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