In a significant move towards enhancing military collaboration, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and UK Defence Secretary John Healey formalized a comprehensive defence treaty last week. This pivotal agreement aims to bolster cooperation across various domains, including land, sea, air, and deep precision strike capabilities, thereby reinforcing the strategic partnership between Germany and the UK.
The signing of the Trinity House Agreement not only cements bilateral relations but also binds Germany, France, and the UK through a series of treaties, collectively aimed at addressing the evolving security landscape in Europe. Experts have been raising concerns for weeks about the potential precarious state of NATO and European security following the recent presidential election in the United States.
The German government has been proactively preparing for the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency for several months. However, some analysts suggest that even if Vice President Kamala Harris takes office, her focus may shift away from European matters towards the Indo-Pacific region as early as 2027.
Defence expert Dr. Aylin Matlé emphasizes that the timing of the agreement is strategically significant. She notes, “Even in a [President] Harris scenario, I expect the US government to demand much more from its European allies.” This agreement marks another important step towards fortifying the European pillar within NATO. Dr. Matlé points out that ongoing initiatives, such as the European long-range strike approach, are aimed at developing and acquiring long-range missiles collaboratively, which have become increasingly vital for air defence in light of Russia’s renewed aggression towards Ukraine.
Dr. Matlé further articulates that while the Trinity House Agreement adds a crucial layer to European defence capabilities in the event of a second Trump term, she cautions that “this agreement alone will not be a silver bullet that will enable Europeans to significantly enhance their defence contributions.” Nonetheless, she asserts that it sends a strong political message, both to domestic audiences and to other European nations, as well as to the United States.
In a scenario involving a second Trump presidency, Dr. Matlé predicts that European nations, particularly Germany, could face more stringent demands, reminiscent of the pressures exerted during Trump’s first term. One of Trump’s primary critiques of NATO, especially directed at Germany, has been its failure to allocate more than 2% of its GDP to defence until this year. Trump has previously urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to target countries that fall below this threshold.
According to Dr. Matlé, one of the principal objectives of the treaty is to convey to US lawmakers, including both Harris and Trump, that Europe recognizes the United States as the principal contributor to its security and defence provisions, and that Europe is prepared to shoulder a greater share of this burden.
However, it is crucial to note that the Trinity House Agreement is not yet a legally binding commitment. Dr. Matlé highlights, “The important aspect here is that this agreement has not yet achieved legal binding status. For it to become legally binding, both nations need to draft an official treaty to be signed by their respective heads of state—German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Prime Minister Keir Starmer—expected to be formulated early next year.”
