Shifting Alliances in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia’s Diplomatic Maneuvers
Just a year ago, Saudi Arabia was on the verge of establishing a significant normalization deal with Israel, a move that promised to radically alter the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. This agreement had the potential to further isolate Iran and its allies while doing little to advance the long-standing aspirations for Palestinian statehood. However, the situation has dramatically evolved, and that deal now seems more elusive than ever.
Despite the recent assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, which some viewed as an opportunity for renewed peace negotiations, Saudi Arabia is taking a different path. Instead of moving toward Israel, the kingdom is fostering closer ties with its historical rival, Iran. This shift underscores a remarkable transformation in Saudi foreign policy, as Riyadh now emphasizes that any agreement with Israel must first involve the acceptance of a Palestinian state.
The anticipated diplomatic thaw in the region is not aligning with the aspirations of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He continues to assert that his administration can successfully negotiate a deal with Saudi Arabia. However, the recent gathering of the foreign ministers of the Persian Gulf states with their Iranian counterpart signals a different trajectory. This meeting marks a tentative yet significant step towards reconciliation, albeit one that will take time to overcome centuries of sectarian strife.
Iran’s diplomatic outreach has been robust, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visiting Saudi Arabia before continuing his tour to other nations in the region, including Iraq and Oman, in a bid to reduce tensions. Notably, his visit to Jordan and subsequent trip to Egypt and Turkey highlight a broader regional engagement, with the trip to Egypt being the first by an Iranian foreign minister in over a decade, according to Iranian media reports.
Araghchi expressed a sentiment reflecting the shared concerns among regional leaders, stating, “In the region, we now have a common grievance about the threat of the war spreading, and the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and the displaced people,” upon his arrival in Istanbul.
In essence, the rejection of a Palestinian state by Netanyahu is catalyzing a realignment in the Middle East that he had not anticipated, leading to a complex interplay of alliances that could reshape the future of the region.