NFL Midseason Predictions: A Fresh Look at the Season’s Progress
As we reach the midseason mark of the NFL, it’s time to revisit the predictions made by The Athletic’s NFL staff back in September. Some forecasts have held steady, notably the anticipated Super Bowl LIX matchup, while others have seen significant shifts, particularly in the MVP and Super Bowl winner categories. A total of 46 staff members participated in this updated poll, highlighting the evolving landscape of the league.
Initially, voter fatigue may have played a role in Lamar Jackson not receiving any MVP votes in our previous poll. However, his performance this season has been nothing short of spectacular. While Patrick Mahomes was the frontrunner at the start of the season, he has faced challenges that might hinder his ability to surpass Jackson, who now leads the MVP race.
A Closer Look at Other Award Contenders
In the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) category, Derrick Henry also failed to garner any votes in the preseason predictions. Yet, he is now well-positioned for another shot at the award, assuming he maintains his health through the second half of the season. Meanwhile, the early favorites, Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey, have been hampered by injuries, complicating their chances.
On the defensive side, T.J. Watt was a close third in the preseason voting for Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY), trailing Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. However, with Parsons sidelined and Garrett having a relatively underwhelming season, Watt has a clear path to potentially secure DPOY honors for the second time, inching closer to his brother J.J. Watt, a three-time winner with the Houston Texans.
Rookie Standouts and Team Performances
In the rookie category, Jayden Daniels has emerged as a notable contender. He finished second in the preseason voting to Caleb Williams, the top overall draft pick. While Williams has certainly improved over the course of the season, Daniels has been remarkable, playing a pivotal role in the Commanders’ impressive turnaround. Additionally, one voter highlighted Rams edge rusher Jared Verse as the standout defensive rookie, even though the rookie votes weren’t split into offensive and defensive categories.
The Kansas City Chiefs have maintained their status as favorites in the AFC, capturing 28 out of 42 votes (67 percent) in September, and now holding a similar share at midseason (63 percent). Despite facing some injury setbacks, particularly with top receiver Rashee Rice, their undefeated record positions them well for a playoff run through Kansas City.
NFC Landscape and Super Bowl Aspirations
In the NFC, the Detroit Lions, initially the preseason pick with only 38 percent of the votes (16 of 42), have significantly increased their standing after a strong performance in the first half of the season. Now, they are the overwhelming favorites, garnering an impressive 87 percent of the votes. The Packers, 49ers, and Eagles were also noted as strong contenders in September.
As the Lions have gained confidence, their prospects for lifting the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl LIX have improved dramatically. In contrast to their two votes for the Super Bowl in September, tied for fifth place behind the Chiefs, 49ers, Texans, and Bengals, they now appear to be a serious threat.
Insights from the Staff
- Joe Buscaglia, Bills beat writer: “The Dolphins are flawed on defense and can’t afford more than two more losses, but they’ve got a supercharged offense and a conducive schedule to potentially secure the AFC’s seventh playoff spot.”
- Mike Sando, NFL senior writer: “It’s the 49ers if they get Christian McCaffrey back and he stays healthy. Otherwise, I’d lean towards the Bengals.”
- David DeChant, senior editor: “I almost picked the 49ers to win the NFC despite their 4-4 start. They’ve played shorthanded, but if Christian McCaffrey returns to form, they could become a formidable force again.”
- R.J. Kraft, staff editor: “The Rams are in a vulnerable division, and their offense is starting to get healthy.”
Coaching Pressure and Future Outlook
- Mike Sando, NFL senior writer: “Doug Pederson is under the most pressure; Jaguars ownership has set expectations sky-high for this season.”
- Jim Ayello, senior editor: “It might already be unsalvageable in Dallas, but there’s no way Jerry Jones can revert to Mike McCarthy if this situation deteriorates further.”
- Joe Buscaglia, Bills beat writer: “You just don’t bench a 22-year-old quarterback who was the fourth overall pick for his 39-year-old backup if you aren’t all-in on this year.”
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Sam Hodde / Getty Images, Patrick McDermott / Getty Images, Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
