How Much Has the Outlook for the College Football Season Changed Since the Preseason?
The college football season is always dynamic, and this year has proven no different. While it may seem that not much has shifted, The Athletic‘s consensus midseason national championship pick was previously overlooked in the preseason polls, receiving zero votes just two months ago. Moreover, the current Heisman Trophy frontrunner hails from a Group of 5 team, showcasing the unexpected twists of this season.
In August, we conducted a survey with 28 of The Athletic‘s college football writers and editors to gather their predictions for the national title, Playoff, and Heisman Trophy. After seven thrilling weeks of the regular season, we reached out to 30 writers and editors for their updated insights on how the 2024 college football season might unfold. Here are the enlightening results and an analysis of how opinions have evolved.
Who Will Win the National Championship?
Team | Midseason | Preseason |
---|---|---|
Texas | 50.0% | 0.0% |
Ohio State | 36.7% | 57.1% |
Oregon | 6.7% | 10.7% |
Clemson | 3.3% | 0.0% |
Georgia | 3.3% | 28.6% |
Alabama | 0.0% | 3.6% |
A significant shift is observed as 15 out of 30 voters now predict that Texas, the top-ranked team in the AP poll, will clinch its first national championship title since 2005—a stark contrast to the preseason, where they received no votes. Ohio State, the preseason favorite with over half of the votes in August, remains in second place with 11 votes despite a setback against Oregon last week, which managed to garner just two votes after securing three in the preseason. This indicates a strong belief among our staff that the Buckeyes can potentially avenge this loss in the Big Ten title game and beyond.
Clemson and Georgia each received one vote to win the championship. Here’s what our voters had to say about their choices:
Why Texas?
The Longhorns have emerged as the most well-rounded team in the nation this season, ranking 11th in offensive yards per play and first in defensive yards per play allowed. They have dominated key matchups, including a commanding victory over Michigan on the road and a decisive win against rival Oklahoma in Dallas. A chance to prove themselves further awaits with a significant game against Georgia at home this week. Their depth is impressive, as evidenced by the offense’s seamless performance when Arch Manning stepped in for starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for two weeks. It feels as though Texas has not yet reached its peak potential.
— Matt Brown
Why Ohio State?
Ohio State was my preseason pick, and it’s challenging to deviate from that stance after they played a competitive game against another top-five team on the road. I would like to see more from Ohio State’s touted defense, but their upcoming match against Oregon could be pivotal for defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and the Buckeyes to refine their strategy against elite competition. The injury to left tackle Josh Simmons raises concerns, but my confidence remains if Texas performs poorly against Georgia on Saturday.
— Ralph Russo
Why Oregon?
Many were eager to see how Oregon would handle the spotlight in a marquee matchup against Ohio State, and they did not disappoint. Dan Lanning’s squad achieved a signature victory that has positioned them as a formidable contender. While it’s difficult to overlook Texas given their current form, Dillon Gabriel possesses the experience that Oregon will rely on as the season progresses. Their schedule also appears favorable for securing a Big Ten title and a first-round bye.
— Grace Raynor
Why Georgia?
Talent and continuity are crucial in college football, and while no team appears truly elite this season, Georgia is not far from that mark. Despite their flaws, the Bulldogs are still a strong bet for the title. It’s surprising to see only one vote for them. Games are often decided in the trenches, and Texas may be the only team capable of matching Georgia’s formidable line play. Quarterback Carson Beck still has the potential to elevate his draft stock, and he has a solid supporting run game to aid him.
— David Ubben
Why Clemson?
It’s understandable that some may have dismissed Clemson following their early season struggles against Georgia. However, the Tigers have rebounded impressively, thanks to a robust defense, a powerful running game led by Phil Mafah, and steady quarterback play from Cade Klubnik. With the new 12-team playoff structure, which rewards teams that peak in December, Clemson remains a multi-dimensional threat, proving that they are still a formidable program under Dabo Swinney.
— Eric Single
What Does Our Projections Model Say?
According to Austin Mock’s College Football Playoff projections model, Ohio State still leads the national championship race, with a 21 percent chance of winning it all. They are followed closely by Georgia (16 percent), Texas (15 percent), Oregon (11 percent), Penn State (10 percent), Alabama (8 percent), Miami (5 percent), and Clemson (5 percent).
Who Will Lose in the National Title Game?
Team | Votes |
---|---|
Texas | 11 |
Ohio State | 9 |
Oregon | 6 |
Georgia | 4 |
Texas not only leads in national championship predictions but is also the most frequently predicted runner-up. A remarkable 26 out of 30 voters believe the Longhorns will reach the national title game in Atlanta, with 11 of those voters forecasting a Texas loss.
Only five teams were chosen to potentially appear in the national title game. The most popular matchup is Texas versus Ohio State (16 votes), while the Oregon versus Texas pairing received six votes.
National Title Game Matchups
Matchup | Votes |
---|---|
Ohio State vs. Texas | 18 |
Oregon vs. Texas | 6 |
Georgia vs. Ohio State | 2 |
Georgia vs. Texas | 2 |
Clemson vs. Oregon | 1 |
Georgia vs. Oregon | 1 |
Who We’re Picking to Make the Playoff
Despite half the season still remaining, our predictions show little variance. Only 18 teams received at least one vote for the 12-team Playoff, with Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Penn State, and Miami receiving unanimous support with 30 votes each. Surprisingly, Oregon was omitted from one ballot but is still considered a near lock, alongside Georgia (29 votes) and Clemson (28 votes).
Alabama (24), Iowa State (22), and Notre Dame (20) appeared on at least two-thirds of the ballots. Notably, Indiana received three votes in Curt Cignetti’s first season, a remarkable rise considering they were not mentioned in the preseason.
On the other hand, two teams that have seen a significant drop from the Playoff race are Utah (71.4 percent of ballots in the preseason) and Florida State (67.9 percent), both of which are notably absent from current ballots.
Who Will Earn Automatic Playoff Bids?
All percentages reflect the share of our staff’s votes, not the odds of winning. For a comprehensive overview of Playoff projections and conference title odds based on our model, click here.
ACC
Team | Midseason | Preseason |
---|---|---|
Miami | 63.3% | 7.1% |
Clemson | 36.7% | 35.7% |
Florida State | 0.0% | 46.4% |
Louisville | 0.0% | 7.1% |
NC State | 0.0% | 3.6% |
After five ACC teams received championship votes in the preseason, only two teams garnered votes at midseason: Miami (19 of 30) and Clemson (11). Notably, there were no votes for sleeper teams like Pitt (6-0 overall) or SMU (5-1).
Big 12
Team | Midseason | Preseason |
---|---|---|
Iowa State | 46.7% | 10.7% |
BYU | 30.0% | 0.0% |
Kansas State | 23.3% | 25.0% |
Utah | 0.0% | 57.1% |
Oklahoma State | 0.0% | 7.1% |
Utah was a preseason favorite on more than half of our ballots but has now fallen off entirely due to two losses and the absence of quarterback Cam Rising for the season. Leading the way are surprising undefeated teams Iowa State and BYU, with Kansas State trailing closely behind.
Big Ten
Team | Midseason | Preseason |
---|---|---|
Ohio State | 66.7% | 85.7% |
Oregon | 33.3% | 14.3% |
Ohio State and Oregon were the only teams to receive votes both in the preseason and now, despite other undefeated teams like Penn State and Indiana lurking in the background. Even after Oregon’s recent victory over Ohio State, two-thirds of our staff still favors the Buckeyes’ chances if they reach Indianapolis.
SEC
Team | Midseason | Preseason |
---|---|---|
Texas | 96.7% | 14.3% |
Georgia | 3.3% | 82.1% |
Alabama | 0.0% | 3.6% |
Texas has become the overwhelming favorite, receiving nearly unanimous support to win the SEC championship at midseason, with only one vote going to Georgia as they prepare to face the Longhorns this Saturday. Following a loss to Vanderbilt and a close call against South Carolina, Alabama did not receive a single vote for the SEC championship.
Group of 5
Team | Midseason | Preseason | Conf |
---|---|---|---|
Boise State | 100.0% | 17.9% | MWC |
Memphis | 0.0% | 39.3% | AAC |
Liberty | 0.0% | 21.4% | CUSA |
Appalachian State | 0.0% | 10.7% | SBC |
Texas State | 0.0% | 7.1% | |
UNLV | 0.0% | 3.6% | MWC |
All 30 voters unanimously selected Boise State as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. The Broncos feature Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty and suffered only a narrow three-point loss to Oregon. They face a crucial matchup next week against UNLV, which is also in contention for the Mountain West title.
In addition, Army, Navy, and Liberty remain undefeated. Both Army and Navy have scheduled games against Notre Dame to bolster their resumes in front of the selection committee, while Liberty is quietly navigating a season against one of the weakest schedules in the nation, making them a long shot despite their continued success.
Who Will Win the Heisman Trophy?
Player | Team | Pos | Votes |
---|---|---|---|
Ashton Jeanty | Boise State | RB | 40.0% |
Cam Ward | Miami | QB | 30.0% |
Travis Hunter | Colorado | WR/CB | 16.7% |
Dillon Gabriel | Oregon | QB | 13.3% |
As the season progresses, only four players have emerged as serious contenders for the Heisman Trophy, a reduction from eight players in the preseason. Leading the pack is Jeanty, who has garnered 12 votes out of 30, showcasing his impressive stats with 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns through just six games. If he maintains this level of performance, it will be challenging for voters to overlook him.
Joining him are two quarterbacks from undefeated teams: Cam Ward, who received nine votes, and Dillon Gabriel, who received four. Notably, Travis Hunter, Colorado’s standout two-way player, garnered five votes as well.
(Top photos: Gregory Shamus and Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)