A Surprising Poll Result: Kamala Harris Leads in Iowa
On a Saturday evening, while enjoying a movie night with my family, I received a text message that made me gasp audibly, startling those around me. My husband, clearly concerned, asked, “What happened?” I reassured him, “It’s nothing bad; it’s just… Ann Selzer has Harris up three in Iowa!”
Throughout the day, political enthusiasts had been eagerly anticipating the release of J. Ann Selzer’s renowned Iowa poll. Although Iowa has not been a swing state for quite some time, Selzer’s polls, conducted for The Des Moines Register, often provide valuable insights into broader electoral trends. Back in 2016, when many Democrats felt confident about a Hillary Clinton victory, Selzer’s survey revealed Donald Trump leading by seven points in Iowa—an early warning sign of his underestimated strength in the Midwest. Ultimately, he won Iowa by over nine points. Similarly, in 2020, her poll once again showed Trump ahead by seven points, closely aligning with the final results and indicating that Joe Biden’s margins in nearby states like Wisconsin would be much tighter than other polls suggested.
Many of us were anxious to see how much Trump would lead this time, so Selzer’s finding that he was actually trailing was a startling revelation. While the poll may ultimately prove inaccurate—after all, Selzer’s impressive record, while commendable, is not infallible—it could become a notable chapter in the narrative of Harris’s potential victory. The primary reason behind Selzer’s unexpected result seems to be the overwhelming sentiment among women. If her findings hold any truth, they suggest that traditional political analysis may have significantly underestimated the extent of women’s anger regarding abortion restrictions and their aversion to Trump’s brash, hypermasculine campaign style.
According to Selzer’s poll, independent women are supporting Harris by a remarkable 28 points, with women aged 65 and older backing her two-to-one. In a conversation with Tim Miller from The Bulwark, Selzer reflected on the factors contributing to these figures. “It was during the summer that Iowa’s six-week abortion ban took effect after navigating through various court challenges,” she noted. “Now, people have been living with this reality for a while.”
Women’s anger has undeniably been a powerful catalyst in American politics since the dismay of Trump’s election in 2016. It fueled the Women’s March and the #MeToo movement, prompting record numbers of Democratic women to run for office in recent election cycles. This female outrage reignited when, thanks to Trump’s Supreme Court appointments, we lost the protections of Roe v. Wade, leaving women in numerous conservative states stripped of autonomy over their reproductive choices. The backlash following the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which effectively ended Roe, is likely why the anticipated red wave for Republicans in 2022 never materialized. It contributed to Democrats achieving significant victories at the state level last year, including the re-election of Governor Andy Beshear in Kentucky.
Some conservative men seem to believe that women’s outrage will dissipate over time. “As we settle back into what feels like a status quo,” remarked Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini in an NPR interview last year, it will become “more challenging to mobilize people and communicate effectively on” abortion. Others on the right have chosen to embrace the growing gender gap, attempting to rally disenchanted young men, including men of color, to compensate for their losses among women. “For every Karen we lose, there’s a Julio and a Jamal ready to join the MAGA movement,” Florida Representative Matt Gaetz proclaimed earlier this year on the right-wing network Newsmax.
