Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump in a Tight Race
In a strikingly competitive political landscape, Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are virtually neck and neck in the popular vote, with both candidates capturing 48 percent, according to the final national poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College. This poll highlights the challenges Ms. Harris faces as she endeavors to gain a crucial advantage over Mr. Trump amidst a deeply polarized electorate.
With less than two weeks remaining until Election Day and millions of Americans having already cast their ballots, the results appear discouraging for Ms. Harris. Historically, Democrats have enjoyed an edge in the popular vote, even in instances where they have ultimately lost the Electoral College and the presidency. As such, there is a keen expectation for Ms. Harris to establish a solid national lead, which would indicate her potential success in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. [Nate Cohn analyzes whether Donald Trump could secure the popular vote while losing the Electoral College.]
Despite the intense political climate marked by significant events—such as a high-stakes debate, two assassination attempts on Mr. Trump, numerous rallies across seven crucial states, and the expenditure of hundreds of millions in advertisements—the race remains remarkably close. In fact, Ms. Harris’s standing among likely voters appears to have slightly diminished since the previous Times/Siena College poll conducted in early October, where she held a narrow lead of 49 percent to 46 percent against Mr. Trump. While this shift falls within the margin of error, it aligns with a broader trend observed in The Times’s national polling average, which indicates that the competition has tightened in recent weeks. [Stay updated with the latest polls and view current polling averages for the Harris vs. Trump matchup.]
Although this latest Times/Siena College poll offers important insights into national sentiment, it is essential to recognize that the election will ultimately be determined in the seven battleground states where both Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump have concentrated the bulk of their time and campaign resources. Most polls in these pivotal states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—suggest that the contest remains extremely close, underscoring the unpredictable nature of this election cycle.