What a Trump Presidency Means for the Middle East
A recent billboard in Tel Aviv celebrated Donald Trump, reflecting the complex sentiments surrounding his political influence. As the former president, Trump was a vociferous ally of Israel, taking significant steps such as recognizing Jerusalem as its capital, halting aid to the U.N. agency that assists Palestinian refugees, and proposing a peace plan that heavily favored Israeli interests. However, he has also urged that the war in Gaza must come to a halt, stating in April, “Israel has to be very careful, because you’re losing a lot of the world.”
Members of Israel’s right-wing government are optimistic that a Trump administration could facilitate a resolution to ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon that would be advantageous for them. Conversely, Trump’s remarks regarding Israel’s operations in Gaza have sparked a glimmer of hope among Palestinian leaders, leading to his recent conversation with Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority.
To delve deeper into the implications of Trump’s return to power, we consulted Patrick Kingsley, the Jerusalem bureau chief.
Trump’s Ambitions for Peace in a Tumultuous Region
Throughout his previous term, Donald Trump made bold assertions about his ability to broker peace in the Middle East. Amidst the current regional instability, how feasible is this ambition?
During his last presidency, Trump played a pivotal role in establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and three Arab nations—an achievement that has continued to influence geopolitics. If he resumes the presidency, he may seek to replicate this success by negotiating a similar agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Nonetheless, he faces significant challenges in negotiating a lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians, a necessary condition for any enduring stability in the region. While it is probable that cease-fires in Gaza and Lebanon will emerge early in his tenure, such truces would likely have been negotiated regardless of whether Harris or Trump were in power.
