The Crucial Elections in Georgia: A Crossroads for the Future

“You can see these symbols everywhere in Tbilisi,” remarks Ana Tavadze, a passionate 27-year-old activist. She gestures toward the blue and yellow flag of the European Union. As the parliamentary elections approach this Saturday, she has been tirelessly campaigning for three different organizations. “This election represents an existential moment in Georgia’s history,” she asserts, highlighting the pivotal opportunity for Georgians to determine their nation’s future—whether within the European Union or outside its embrace.

On the day of the elections, millions of Georgians, both at home and in the diaspora, will cast their votes in what President Salome Zourabichvili has termed a “referendum” reflecting the country’s choice between Europe and Russia. The ruling party, Georgia Dream, will face off against four significant opposition parties: the United National Movement, Strong Georgia, Coalition for Change, and Gakharia for Georgia. All these parties have united under the Georgian Charter, a call to action initiated by Zourabichvili, urging them to collaborate in unseating Georgia Dream and preventing it from forming a coalition.

Supporters of the ruling Georgia Dream party gathered in a rally in central Tbilisi on October 23, 2024. Critics of the party argue that it has eroded public trust after nearly a decade in power, particularly due to the controversial “foreign agents” bill, dubbed the “Russian law,” which incited mass protests earlier this year and stalled Georgia’s EU accession prospects. Founded and led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia Dream has proposed legislation that the opposition claims mirrors Russian laws, including a recently adopted bill perceived to severely restrict the rights of the LGBTQ+ community. In response, Georgia Dream has refuted these allegations, asserting that it can ensure peace with neighboring Russia through pragmatic policies, framing the current elections as a choice between “peace and war.” Moscow presently occupies around 20% of Georgian territory, specifically in the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a situation Georgia Dream claims the opposition could exacerbate.

Ivanishvili and Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze have both expressed their commitment to rejuvenating relations with the EU, insisting that Georgia should pursue EU membership on its own terms. The party claims it is on track to join the EU by 2030. “We are clearly pro-European as a government, and our actions substantiate this,” Kobakhidze stated in an interview with Euronews. He emphasized the historical ties between Georgia and Europe, stating, “As a Christian nation, Europe has always been intertwined with our identity, advocating for and protecting Christianity in Georgia. Thus, aligning with Europe has always felt like a natural choice for our people.”

Predictions and Polling Outcomes

Current opinion polls present a mixed picture, with various surveys commissioned by different political entities yielding contradictory results. A recent poll conducted by UK-based market research firm Savanta suggests that Georgia Dream maintains a lead, albeit without a majority, garnering 35% support, while Coalition for Change trails with 19%. Marika Mikiashvili from Coalition for Change expressed satisfaction with her party’s positioning but emphasized that the primary goal remains to unseat Georgia Dream. “Our focus is on forming a coalition government that will bring about comprehensive change and initiate accession talks with the EU,” she remarked.

Mikiashvili indicated that her party is committed to holding snap elections following essential reforms to restart conversations with the EU, aligning with the principles outlined in the Georgian Charter. The United National Movement, currently polling in third place at 16%, has a controversial history from its previous nine years in power. Mikiashvili stated that her party would be open to forming a coalition with them to expedite the removal of Georgia Dream from governance.

Challenges Ahead

Georgia’s pro-European sentiment has been robust for decades, with a survey conducted in March 2023 indicating that 85% of the population supports EU membership. Despite this overwhelming approval, Georgia Dream secured a third term in power during the 2020 elections. Experts speculate that the introduction of the foreign agents bill and the stagnation of EU accession talks may have irreparably damaged the party’s popularity. “Georgian Dream’s appeal has diminished since the last elections, primarily due to their disastrous decisions over recent years,” noted Dr. Shalva Dzebisashvili, head of Politics and International Relations at the University of Georgia. “This election is not just routine; people understand that choosing Georgia Dream signifies maintaining the status quo and rejecting a European future.”

However, even as Georgia Dream’s popularity appears to be waning, pro-European activists express concerns about potential voter intimidation as the elections approach. Dzebisashvili highlighted that Georgia Dream controls key institutions, including the electoral commission and the judiciary, along with thousands of public sector employees. “Our fears center around the possibility that in more remote areas, voters might face direct or indirect pressure to support Georgia Dream,” he stated.

Elene Kintsurashvili, a program coordinator for the German Marshall Fund, echoed these concerns, citing reports of individuals being asked to provide proof of their voting choices, with threats of job loss looming over them. She also pointed out the shortage of polling stations for the Georgian diaspora in neighboring countries like Poland, where the sole polling station is located in Warsaw. There are additional worries about potential Russian interference during the elections, similar to tactics employed in Moldova’s recent polls, which included disinformation campaigns and vote-buying efforts. Experts warn that if Georgia Dream ends up short of a majority, they may not concede defeat gracefully, raising fears of a tumultuous power transfer. “The party has shown it is not prepared to accept defeat, which creates a tense atmosphere within society,” Dzebisashvili remarked. “There is a legitimate concern that they might resort to forceful measures.”

Kobakhidze has dismissed such allegations, asserting, “I can confidently say that Russia holds no sway in Georgia. There are no political factions under their influence, nor media channels that they control. Thus, Russian interference in our elections is not a concern.”

The Path Forward

The European Parliament has confirmed that the upcoming elections will be scrutinized by both domestic and international observers, including a delegation from the European Parliament itself. Polling stations will open at 8 AM local time (6 AM CET) on Saturday, and results are expected to emerge between late Saturday and early Sunday morning. The party receiving the highest number of votes will have the right to form a government, with the president overseeing any potential new elections. Should Zourabichvili’s Georgian Charter hold true, Georgia Dream will be unable to forge a coalition, as the other parties have committed to not collaborating with them.

However, the absence of dependable polling data leaves the election’s outcome uncertain—and likewise, Georgia Dream’s potential course of action should they fail to secure a majority remains unclear. Euronews has reached out to Georgia Dream for additional commentary on the situation.