Geopolitical Shifts in the Caucasus: A New Landscape
In a striking display of security measures, Russia’s domestic intelligence agency actively monitors a winding river that delineates a crucial border region, accompanied by an array of surveillance cameras, imposing watchtowers, and three layers of barbed-wire fencing. Yet, paradoxically, Russia itself lies nearly 200 miles away. By January, however, Russian officers stationed in this area are set to begin their departure.
This critical boundary between Iran and Armenia spans approximately 30 miles and has emerged as a pivotal point amidst a whirlwind of geopolitical changes. In the Caucasus, a mountainous region where Europe and Asia converge, the dynamics between Russia and Iran have evolved into a fierce rivalry, while Western nations are finding unexpected common ground with Tehran.
This intricate web of interests and alliances presents a challenge to the traditional Western perspective on international partnerships and may be further complicated by the potential re-election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States.
During a rare interview last week, Iran’s ambassador to Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani, openly acknowledged the shifting landscape and the diverging interests of Russia and Iran in the region. He noted that despite the rhetoric of a “strategic partnership” often touted by both nations in their opposition to the United States, the reality is more nuanced.
“We are not allies,” Mr. Sobhani stated emphatically. “We have some differences, and we have some mutual interests. It doesn’t mean that we are allied.” His remarks underscore the complexities of international relationships in this volatile region, revealing that while collaboration may occur, it is often overshadowed by significant disagreements.
