Europe Watches as America Votes: A Tense Election

As the United States prepares to elect its next president, many in Europe are holding their breath. For decades, this quadrennial ritual has been met with keen interest, excitement, and even a measure of respect across the Atlantic. The U.S., being the oldest democracy in the world and Europe’s primary security guarantor, holds significant sway over the political future of the continent. However, this curiosity has now transformed into anxiety, and in some cases, fear.

Europe finds itself in a heated contest between Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate who has pledged to uphold the long-standing transatlantic alliance and “stand up to dictators,” and Donald Trump, the Republican candidate who has famously referred to Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “the greatest salesman” and has boasted about encouraging Russia to do “whatever they want” with countries that fail to meet NATO’s defense spending targets.

For most Europeans, the choice appears straightforward. A recent YouGov survey conducted across seven European nations revealed an overwhelming preference for Harris, including among supporters of Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader from France. In contrast, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán is reportedly preparing “several bottles of champagne” to toast a potential Trump victory.

In Brussels, the sentiment was initially one of cautious optimism. Harris, buoyed by Joe Biden’s unexpected withdrawal, quickly gained a modest yet solid lead in many battleground states. She and her supporters capitalized on this momentum, utilizing pop-culture memes, filling arenas with celebrities, and playfully dismissing Republicans as “weird.” Her performance in the September debate was widely praised, positioning her as the favored candidate to become the 47th president of the United States.

However, the atmosphere has shifted dramatically. The initial excitement has waned, and the tone has turned somber. Instead of calling Republicans “weird,” Harris has begun labeling Trump a “fascist.” As Election Day approaches, America is faced with an impossibly deadlocked battle, much to Europe’s dismay.

Deadlocked Battle

Currently, Harris and Trump are virtually tied in seven crucial swing states. The percentage differences between the candidates in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada all fall within the margin of error. Pollsters admit they have never witnessed anything quite like this in recent memory.

The “Blue Wall,” comprising Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), and Wisconsin (10), has always been Harris’ most promising route to the White House. Collectively, these states can propel the Democrat to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. However, her previously steady lead in this region has evaporated, granting Trump a realistic opportunity to reclaim the northern states, just as he did in 2016.

Then came a bombshell over the weekend: a highly regarded poll placed Harris three points ahead in Iowa, a state that has not supported a Democrat since Obama in 2012. The following day, the final poll by the New York Times indicated Harris leading in North Carolina by two points and in Georgia by just one, while Trump was comfortably ahead in Arizona. The newspaper’s headline stated, “Harris and Trump Battle to the Wire,” cautioning that “neither candidate has a definitive lead” in the battleground states.

In other words, anything is possible, and the unpredictability of the situation only heightens concerns.

The Luxury of Comfort

The prospect of Trump, known for his disdain for multilateralism, returning to the White House is a nightmare scenario for officials and diplomats in Brussels. They fear he may turn a blind eye to Vladimir Putin’s expansionist ambitions, impose indiscriminate tariffs on imports, and abandon the Paris Agreement once again. And this is just the beginning.

More profoundly, the aftermath of Trump’s first presidency fueled discussions in the EU about “strategic autonomy.” This approach aims to ensure the bloc is insulated from the volatile whims of Washington, D.C. French President Emmanuel Macron has passionately advocated for this notion, attracting followers and inspiring policies to promote domestic green technologies, attract investments in semiconductors, and tackle China’s market distortions.

Despite these efforts, the overall progress has been underwhelming. The EU remains heavily reliant on global dynamics, whether in trade, energy, technology, climate action, or security. While discussions of a “multipolar world” abound, the U.S. continues to play an outsized role, influencing global wealth distribution and creating turmoil in various regions.

No area illustrates this dependency more starkly than the West’s response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. The U.S. has served as Kyiv’s primary supplier of advanced weaponry, including long-range ATACMS missiles, thanks to its unparalleled defense industry. The mere thought of Washington withdrawing from this united front sends shivers down the spines of Brussels officials.

Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President, articulated this sentiment earlier this year, stating, “The simple truth is: We do not have the luxury of comfort. We do not have control over elections or decisions in other parts of the world,” as a $60 billion (€55.4 billion) aid package stalled in the U.S. Congress.

Von der Leyen, a strong advocate for robust EU-U.S. relations, has set ambitious goals for her second term, which could be severely disrupted by a Trump presidency.

Ready for Whatever Result

The stakes are so high that the European Commission has established a special task force to prepare for possible scenarios following November 5. “Our role is to be ready for whatever result there is to the elections in the United States,” a Commission spokesperson stated on Monday.

While a Harris victory would likely bring relief to European capitals (with the exception of Budapest), it is worth noting that the Democrat has not exhibited a strong interest in European matters beyond her overarching goal of uniting democratic allies against authoritarianism. In recent years, American politics has increasingly turned inward, with foreign policy discussions often sidelined, and when raised, predominantly focus on Russia, China, or the Middle East.

Even though Joe Biden’s agenda faces criticism at home, his diplomatic engagement has garnered praise abroad. Biden, who has taken pride in rallying the West against the Kremlin, embodies a traditional, steadfast belief in the transatlantic alliance—something the next generation of leaders, like Harris and Obama, did not inherently possess.

This shift in Washington’s focus raises an uncomfortable question: Does anyone truly care about Europe? For many, the answer seems to be that it is up to Europe to care for itself. “Harris or Trump? Some argue that the future of Europe hinges on the American elections, but it ultimately depends on us—provided Europe finally matures and believes in its own strength,” remarked Poland’s Donald Tusk on social media. “Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.”

An early version of this article was published in The Briefing, Euronews’ weekly political newsletter. Click here to subscribe.