Election Night Insights: A Conversation with Times Opinion Columnists
Patrick Healy, the deputy Opinion editor, moderated an engaging online discussion with esteemed Times Opinion columnists David Brooks, Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg, and Tressie McMillan Cottom, focusing on their predictions for election night and the potential aftermath.
Patrick Healy: Welcome to Election Day! What are your predictions for the outcomes?
Michelle Goldberg: I think a lot of Democrats are expressing what I would call “nauseously optimistic” sentiments. Personally, I would wager on Kamala Harris emerging victorious, although I can’t quite separate my evidence and intuition from my own hopes. On the evidence front, the J. Ann Selzer poll indicating Harris is three points ahead in Iowa suggests there might be a significant shift among American women voters. Many appear to be infuriated by the overturning of Roe v. Wade and are deeply unsettled by the aggressive, hypermasculine campaign style that Donald Trump is employing.
Ross Douthat: I believe Donald Trump will ultimately win the election. My reasoning remains consistent with what I said when Kamala Harris appeared to have a more favorable position in the polls. Harris, in my view, is a weaker-than-average candidate who is burdened by defending a deeply unpopular incumbent administration. I still hold onto the perhaps overly optimistic belief that any significant polling error will lean in Trump’s favor. We might also witness the announcement of a presidential victor more swiftly than we did in 2020, although that could just be an eager yet doomed hope from the media.
Healy: Ross, which swing states do you think might help decide the election more quickly than in 2020? I’m particularly focused on North Carolina, where polls will close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time, and Michigan—both states are known for their efficient vote counting, and allies of both Trump and Harris are certainly anxious.
Douthat: In addition to those, I would include Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. If Trump is poised for a strong night, we should see early returns indicating that, even though he is unlikely to win the state outright. Conversely, if Ohio appears competitive, it could signal a positive evening for Harris.
Goldberg: Regarding Michigan, it’s noteworthy that a Republican pollster there, whose latest survey indicates Harris is ahead by two points, has come to realize—based on absentee ballots and early voting data—that their polling likely underrepresented women, Black voters, and residents of Detroit. The overarching narrative of this election might be that pollsters, in their eagerness to avoid the pitfalls of underestimating Trump’s support—an error made in both 2016 and, to a lesser extent, 2020—have overcorrected this time around.
