Election Night Insights

Credit…Nick Hagen for The New York Times

Four years ago, it took news organizations several days to declare Joe Biden the winner of the election. This year, while we may not have an immediate verdict, the timeline for results is expected to be quicker, particularly in pivotal states such as Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. As was the case in 2020, voters will experience “blue mirages” or “red mirages,” where one candidate briefly leads due to the order in which mail-in and Election Day ballots are counted. Historically, mail-in ballots tend to favor Democratic candidates, while those cast on Election Day often lean Republican. However, this year, these mirages should be less pronounced.

A general trend for counting votes in American elections indicates that the process begins in the Southeastern states and wraps up in the West. Keeping this in mind, here’s what we can anticipate throughout the night, organized by region (all times Eastern):

Sundown: The South (mostly)

Election night will kick off in the South, with polls closing in Georgia, Virginia, and most of Florida by 7 p.m., while North Carolina’s polls close at 7:30 p.m. Results should arrive swiftly, potentially allowing for clear outcomes or calls by midnight, even in tightly contested races. In these states, early voting is expected to lean Democratic, but not as heavily as in previous elections. Similarly, the Election Day vote is likely to favor Republicans, but the gap may not be as wide as it was four years ago.

Due to the rapid counting in these states, we should have a substantial amount of information by around 9 or 10 p.m., even if there isn’t an official race call. Here are three primary scenarios to consider:

• If Kamala Harris is evidently favored (or has won) in Georgia or North Carolina, she will be in a strong position. Winning either of these states does not guarantee national victory, but it signals promising prospects for her campaign, as neither state is viewed as her easiest path to the presidency. Securing one or both states would grant her the flexibility to lose a crucial Northern state while showcasing her strength in battleground areas.
• If Donald J. Trump is clearly leading (or has secured victories) in both North Carolina and Georgia, he will hold the upper hand. Wins in these states wouldn’t assure him of national victory, but they would leave Harris with only one viable route to success: sweeping Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin for a narrow 270-268 win. This would be a challenging feat, as she would need to excel in all three states, which may be difficult if she is unable to perform strongly in Georgia or North Carolina.
• If Ms. Harris remains competitive in at least one of North Carolina or Georgia, the race will be a genuine tossup. The focus will then shift to the Northern battlegrounds.

A few additional points to keep in mind early in the evening:

• Florida will report its votes at a rapid pace. If Mr. Trump secures a significant victory in Florida, it may not necessarily reflect the national trend. It’s important to resist the temptation to draw broad conclusions from this result and to exercise patience.
• The polls in most of Texas will close at 8 p.m. The early votes from major urban counties will be reported quickly, making it relatively straightforward to assess whether Ted Cruz’s Senate seat is at risk, although it may take longer to finalize a call if the race is close.
• Keep a close watch on Virginia. If the results are tight, it could indicate a favorable evening for Mr. Trump.
• Ohio is no longer a presidential battleground, but it does feature an important Senate race. Polls will close at 7:30 p.m., with early voting leaning Democratic. Patience is key; results should come in steadily as counties complete their counts.
• Lastly, I’ll be closely monitoring New Hampshire. The counting process there is straightforward, providing our first indication of voter sentiment in the predominantly white, non-evangelical North. If Ms. Harris can match Mr. Biden’s performance (a seven-point victory statewide), it would suggest she might also perform well in key states like Wisconsin or Michigan, even if results from the South are less favorable for her.

Late Tuesday Night and Early Wednesday Morning: The North

As North Carolina and Georgia finalize their counts, attention will gradually shift to the Northern battlegrounds: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.