Election Night Insights: Polls and Predictions
Even before former President Donald J. Trump was officially declared the winner of the presidential race, the early numbers on election night hinted at a significant triumph for polling accuracy. In the weeks leading up to the election, pre-election surveys consistently indicated a neck-and-neck contest between Mr. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, both in terms of the popular vote and within key battleground states. As the preliminary results started to roll in, it became evident that a closely contested race was indeed unfolding.
By Wednesday morning, The New York Times’s forecasting model suggested that Mr. Trump was poised to secure the national popular vote by a margin of approximately 1.5 percentage points. This outcome indicated that the pre-election polls, which on average had shown Ms. Harris with a slight one-point lead, were likely off by approximately two and a half points. In addition, Mr. Trump appeared to be on track to capture all seven critical swing states, as estimated by The Times, which would grant him a more substantial advantage in the Electoral College. Nevertheless, this outcome remained well within the range of predictions made by the polls, with his margins of victory in these states appearing relatively narrow, consistent with earlier polling data.
It is important to note that while the polls provided valuable insights, they were not infallible. Discrepancies did occur, with some polls showing Ms. Harris with a minor edge, even as Mr. Trump ultimately held a slight advantage. However, a lead of merely one point in polling should be interpreted as essentially a tie. The true merit of the polls in this election cycle lay in their ability to illustrate that the race was exceedingly close.
In a detailed analysis of the preliminary results from states where sufficient pre-election polling had taken place, allowing for an average calculation, the polls were found to be off by an average of three percentage points—well within the standard margin of error. Interestingly, in battleground states where races were decisively called, the polling predictions varied by only about two percentage points from the preliminary results, underscoring the effectiveness of polling in capturing the election dynamics.
