Election Day Anticipations
Gail Collins: Well, Bret, tomorrow is the big day! Have you cast your vote yet?
Bret Stephens: I prefer to vote on Election Day itself. However, a friend of mine recently voted at the Met Museum and reported that the line was excruciatingly long—taking hours, in fact. It was mostly women waiting. I’m predicting a significant victory for Kamala Harris here in Manhattan. What about you?
Gail: I also enjoy the experience of voting on Election Day, even when the lines are outrageously long. And yes, it’s likely that the anticipated high voter turnout in New York will have little impact on the overall result. Both sides have understood from the very beginning that this state wasn’t pivotal for campaigning. Still, it would be quite satisfying if Kamala Harris achieved a substantial victory margin in Donald Trump’s own backyard. Do you have any specific predictions?
Bret: My instincts are telling me that Trump might pull off a win. It feels like he’s gaining momentum, which is challenging to quantify but often plays a crucial role, especially in the final stages of a campaign. His photo opportunities have been more compelling. Recent surveys indicate that only 28 percent of Americans believe the country is on the right track, which historically suggests that the incumbent party tends to lose. Moreover, I maintain that Trump embodies a sense of control, and many people feel that various aspects of life have spiraled out of control during the entirety of the Biden-Harris administration—be it migration, rising prices, soaring rent, increased financing costs, urban safety concerns, or ongoing overseas conflicts.
Gail: Aaaeeeee …
Bret: On the flip side, who can say for sure? The polls were overly optimistic for Democrats in both 2016 and 2020. Conversely, they misjudged Republican support in 2012. I’m particularly puzzled by that Selzer poll in Iowa, which shows Harris leading in a state Trump won by eight points in 2020—could it be an outlier, or perhaps an indicator of a potential Harris landslide? I wouldn’t be shocked if we witness a clear victor on Tuesday night. However, I would also not be surprised if we find ourselves mired in a prolonged period of recounts and legal battles, lasting days or even weeks.
Gail: If Trump loses, I can only imagine the recount chaos will be intense. It’s also plausible that the Harris team would challenge a Trump victory if there was substantial evidence of widespread irregularities at the polls.
Bret: Similar to facing a serious illness, we should hope for clear margins in this election.
Gail: On the prediction front, I’m leaning towards a Harris win. Early voting showed a strong turnout among women, who generally support her candidacy. Do you have any plans for election night?
