Donald J. Trump’s Election Night Celebration in West Palm Beach

Credit: Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times

When Donald J. Trump secured the presidency eight years ago, many viewed his triumph as a narrow victory or even a mere anomaly. However, the narrative has shifted dramatically this time around.

In a remarkable turn of events, despite facing challenges such as the January 6 insurrection, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and a felony conviction, Mr. Trump achieved a decisive victory. He is poised to win all seven battleground states and has made significant gains across various regions of the country and among nearly every demographic group. A glance at The Times’s updated electoral map reveals a striking landscape dominated by red.

Our estimates indicate that Mr. Trump is also on track to become the first Republican in two decades to win the national popular vote. Nevertheless, it is crucial to temper the interpretation of his victory. This should not be characterized as a landslide; a one- or two-percentage-point lead in the popular vote, accompanied by roughly 312 electoral votes, is not uncommon. This result is not as substantial as Barack Obama’s moderate win in 2012 and falls short of the significant shifts observed during “change” elections such as Mr. Obama’s in 2008 or Bill Clinton’s in 1992.

However, Mr. Trump is not an ordinary candidate. His unique circumstances mean that even a standard victory carries greater implications than usual. Remarkably, a felon who attempted to overturn a previous election would typically be deemed an unviable candidate in a presidential race. Yet, not only did he prove viable, but he also won with relative confidence.

In spite of his victory, it is noteworthy that many voters perceive Mr. Trump as an unappealing candidate. According to CNN’s exit poll, only 44 percent of voters held a favorable opinion of him, while 54 percent expressed an unfavorable view. Furthermore, a majority, comprising 55 percent of voters, believed his views are too extreme. This raises questions about the nuances of Mr. Trump’s appeal, which may not be fully captured by straightforward polling questions. Ultimately, his victory may reflect more about the Democratic Party’s challenges and a widespread public yearning for change than it does about Mr. Trump himself.