Concerns Mount in Europe Over Potential Trump Victory in US Presidential Election
As voting takes place on Tuesday in a highly contested US presidential election, analysts in Europe are expressing growing apprehensions that a Donald Trump victory could disrupt crucial EU relations. Key areas of concern include security policies, aid for Ukraine, and the future of trade agreements.
Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris is generally viewed as someone who would likely uphold the existing relationship between the EU and the US, particularly regarding international security and economic cooperation. In contrast, former President Trump has been vocal in his criticism of the European Union and has hinted at a willingness to alter the current dynamics of EU-US relations.
One of the most pressing issues for the next US president will be the ongoing military and financial support for Ukraine, especially in light of Russia’s full-scale invasion that began in February 2022. Since then, Washington has committed tens of billions of dollars to aid Kyiv, but the Republican Party is becoming increasingly divided on the issue of continued funding. Trump has notably criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and has suggested that he may reduce US support for Ukraine if he returns to office.
Bart Szewczyk, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund, mentioned in an interview with Euronews that one possible scenario could involve Trump halting military aid to Ukraine altogether. He has even suggested that he might negotiate a ceasefire with Russian President Vladimir Putin, potentially sidelining Ukrainian and European interests in the process. “Trump could aim to strike a deal that ends the conflict before he officially takes office in January, but details on how he would achieve this remain vague,” Szewczyk noted.
The likelihood is that a Trump administration may continue to supply weapons to Ukraine but would expect Europe to shoulder the financial burden. Currently, EU support for the Ukrainian military is estimated at approximately €43.5 billion, but this figure could swell to over €200 billion if the US alters its contributions, according to Szewczyk. He cautioned that this could lead to “chaos, with a mishmash of peace negotiations and inconsistent weapons supplies.”
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‘America First’ Stance
Trump has long advocated for a policy of US isolationism, a viewpoint that has gained traction within the Republican Party in recent years. At a campaign rally earlier this year, he explicitly stated that he would not defend NATO allies from Russian aggression unless they met their defense spending obligations. This stance has frustrated US officials, as many of NATO’s 31 members fail to meet the annual defense spending target of at least 2% of GDP. Currently, it is estimated that only 23 member states will meet this goal in the coming year, a significant increase from just three a decade ago.
As it stands, the US contributes roughly 16.2% of NATO’s primary budgets, a figure comparable to Germany’s contributions. Serge Jaumain, a professor at the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), remarked that Europe must prepare for a future where the US may no longer play its current role in European affairs. This shift, he noted, could occur under either a Trump or Harris administration, signaling an end to the era of robust US involvement in Europe.
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Protectionism on the Horizon?
Another significant concern for European nations is the potential for Trump to reinstate protectionist policies, including imposing trade tariffs on imports from various countries. Trump has proposed a blanket 10% tariff on imports and a staggering 60% tariff on goods from China.
The US is a vital trading partner for the EU, with trade in goods between the two entities more than doubling over the past decade, reaching nearly €870 billion in 2022. Key exports from the EU to the US include medicines, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles, while major imports from the US consist of natural gas, petroleum oils, and crude oil.
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Despite this, Trump has been critical of the EU, warning that it would “pay a big price” for not purchasing enough American goods should he win the election. Jaumain emphasized that the overarching goal of Trump’s trade policies appears to be the protection of US interests worldwide, suggesting that proposed tariffs might serve as retaliation against European nations.
However, given Trump’s unpredictable nature, analysts like Jaumain urge caution when interpreting his campaign promises, advocating for a careful assessment of their potential implications.
