Colorado’s Surprising Path to the Playoff

On Saturday, while Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes were enjoying a weekend off and Travis Hunter embarked on a Heisman Trophy media tour, the Buffaloes found themselves in an unexpectedly advantageous position in the College Football Playoff race. A series of upsets reshaped the landscape, as Iowa State fell at home to Texas Tech, leaving only one undefeated team in the Big 12. Shortly after, Kansas State stumbled in Houston, suffering its second conference loss, which allowed Colorado to leapfrog them in the standings after their earlier defeat to K-State.

Now, Colorado, which managed just one conference victory a season prior and faced a daunting 28-0 halftime deficit against Nebraska in Week 2, has a legitimate shot at the Playoff. This dynamic is a testament to the current format of the Playoff system: every conference race holds significance, and the Buffaloes are firmly in the mix for the Big 12 title.

Just two weeks ago, six teams in the Big 12 boasted one conference loss or fewer. However, chaos has ensued, and that number has dwindled to three, with Colorado among them. The only remaining undefeated team in the Big 12 is BYU, while the Buffaloes now share second place with Iowa State. This weekend, Colorado will face Texas Tech, and they conclude the season with matchups against three teams currently positioned at the bottom of the conference standings. Notably, neither BYU nor Iowa State will have to contend with Colorado.

Iowa State still has to face both Kansas State and Cincinnati, two teams situated in the upper echelons of the conference. Meanwhile, BYU appears poised for a strong finish, with games against rivals Utah and Arizona State, as well as home matches against improved Kansas and Houston. Colorado’s wide receiver and defensive back, Travis Hunter, is emerging as a frontrunner in the Heisman Trophy race.

All Colorado needs to secure its playoff destiny is one loss from Iowa State. If that scenario doesn’t play out, the Buffaloes could still find themselves in the Big 12 Championship Game through tiebreakers. The application of these tiebreakers will likely depend on BYU’s performance—if they lose, the identity of the opponent will also come into play. At that juncture, Sanders and the Buffaloes would be just 60 minutes away from a potential playoff berth.

This is a new era in college football where no power conference team can be dismissed until the pivotal moments of conference play unfold. Colorado exemplifies this unpredictability.

Each week, our Bubble Watch will explore the teams on the brink of playoff contention, providing insights into who’s in, who’s out, and who remains in limbo as we approach the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. This serves as a realistic snapshot of the current field rather than a mere projection. The five highest-ranked conference champions will earn an automatic berth in the Playoff.

Conference Breakdown

ACC

Clemson’s disappointing home loss to Louisville significantly impacted the ACC’s chances of securing two spots in the playoff. However, it also alleviated the possibility of a convoluted tiebreaker scenario involving three teams undefeated in conference play. With two losses and a lack of impactful victories, the Tigers will require considerable assistance to attain an at-large bid unless they clinch the ACC title. SMU possesses a respectable resume but may still fall short of an at-large bid at 11-1 without winning the ACC. Miami stands as the league’s sole team with a viable shot to secure a spot, while Pitt and Louisville could still disrupt the landscape with a late-season upset.

Big Ten

Ohio State’s victory over Penn State was a significant lift for the Big Ten, solidifying the likelihood of three teams making the playoff, with the possibility of a fourth emerging. Indiana remains an impressive contender, improving to 9-0 with a staggering average margin of victory of 32.9 points, having won all matches by at least 14 points.

The stakes have shifted for the Indiana-Ohio State matchup on November 23, which could serve as a Playoff elimination bout. However, both teams still hold legitimate playoff aspirations, even with a potential loss, although Selection Sunday could become tense if the loser does not compete for the title in Indianapolis. It’s likely that one of the league’s top four teams will be disappointed when the final rankings are revealed.

Big 12

The losses suffered by Kansas State and Iowa State have opened the door for an enticing playoff scenario. However, this chaos has dealt a blow to the league’s prospects of landing an at-large bid. Iowa State is the only team in the conference with a credible shot at a playoff spot, but they must run the table while hoping Kansas State maintains its winning ways to enhance the significance of their previous victory over Iowa State in Farmageddon. Even if they succeed, it may require BYU reaching the Big 12 title game and losing to Iowa State, Colorado, or Kansas State for the league to secure more than one playoff spot.

SEC

The SEC boasts five teams with a single conference loss, making the race to Atlanta unpredictable. The “in the mix” teams possess a genuine opportunity to either solidify their playoff bids or fall out of contention during the final month of the season. This holds especially true as chaos unfolded in the ACC and Big 12, with Clemson, Iowa State, and Kansas State all suffering defeats over the weekend.

With both Vanderbilt and Missouri holding two conference losses, they face a challenging road ahead, with too many teams between them and the top contenders for a shot at Atlanta. Additionally, both teams have suffered damaging losses (Georgia State for Vanderbilt and A&M/Alabama for Missouri) that severely limit their chances for an at-large bid.

Group of 5

While running back Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman campaign has slowed in recent weeks, Boise State’s playoff hopes have surged as competition has lessened. Should a surprise winner emerge from the Big 12, the Broncos could find themselves in an intriguing position for the No. 4 seed with the Group of 5 automatic bid. The real picture will become clearer once the committee releases its first rankings on Tuesday. If Boise State is ranked higher than any Power 4 conference champion on Selection Sunday, they will secure a bye into the quarterfinals as the No. 4 seed.

Boise State also has the opportunity to avoid a rematch with UNLV if Colorado State continues to win. The Rams are currently tied atop the Mountain West standings at 4-0, with none of the teams facing each other in the concluding month of the season, potentially leading to a tiebreaker scenario if Colorado State falters. Army remains in contention in the American but lacks the strength of schedule to rival Boise State’s resume and is unlikely to break into the committee’s Top 25, despite being one of just five remaining undefeated FBS teams.

Navy and Memphis have been eliminated from the playoff conversation, with the Midshipmen suffering their second consecutive loss and Memphis allowing 44 points in a defeat to UTSA.

Others

Notre Dame didn’t require additional assistance, but they received some from the ACC and Big 12. The latest model gives the Irish an impressive 89 percent chance of making the playoff field, while the team continues to ascend the seeding lines. Army is expected to be Notre Dame’s toughest remaining opponent, while rival USC has stumbled, now sitting at 4-5 after a loss against Washington.

(Top photo: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)