Interpreting the 2024 Election Results: Caution is Advised
While the 2024 election results may initially seem favorable for Democrats, there are several reasons to approach these findings with caution. The overall percentages indicate a significant portion of the electorate, yet the underlying numbers reveal concerning trends. For instance, approximately 60% of Hispanic voters cast their ballots for Joe Biden, while support for Kamala Harris was slightly lower at around 50%. In stark contrast, Biden garnered the overwhelming backing of 90% of Black voters, with Harris receiving about 80% of that demographic’s support. Moreover, more than 80% of Donald Trump’s votes originated from white voters.
However, a closer analysis of the voting patterns uncovers troubling shifts for the Democratic Party. A comprehensive 2024 AP VoteCast survey, which included responses from 110,000 voters, highlighted that the most significant declines in support for Harris—specifically by 10 percentage points or more—were predominantly among crucial minority Democratic constituencies.
- The AP poll indicated that only 66% of nonwhite voters aged 18 to 44 supported Harris in 2024, marking an 11-point drop from Biden’s 77% in 2020.
- Nonwhite men without college degrees demonstrated a similar trend, showing an 11-point decrease in support for Harris compared to Biden.
- Furthermore, Black men—both with and without college degrees—exhibited an even steeper decline, backing Harris by 12 points less than they had Biden.
- Young voters across all racial and ethnic backgrounds, particularly those aged 18 to 29, also showed a 10-point reduction in support for Harris compared to Biden.
From a broader perspective, these trends suggest a political landscape where the lower half of the income distribution—including voters from diverse races and ethnicities—may increasingly lean towards Republican candidates, while the upper half aligns more with Democrats. This marks a notable reversal of the traditional New Deal coalition.
The ongoing class realignment is a significant factor, as noted by political scientist Matt Grossmann from Michigan State University. In an email, he elaborated on how these shifts have fundamentally transformed the composition of the two major political parties. He pointed out that:
“Have the cultural values of white progressives become a liability for the Democratic Party?”
Grossmann referenced Representative Ritchie Torres of New York, a Democrat, who shared insights on the far-left faction of the current Democratic Party in a post on X dated November 6.
In summary, these developing trends appear to favor Republicans while posing serious challenges for Democrats. Over the past three presidential elections, these dynamics have evolved in a manner that signifies both strength and durability for the Republican Party. Consequently, it may prove difficult for Democrats to reverse these emerging patterns.
